Iron ore price, page-31489

Hi All, I havent posted for a while. I am feeling pretty good about the iron ore price. However there has been a fair bit of discussion here about how the Chinese will respond. I think the graph below gives the answer. When Australia increased its iron ore production 10 years ago it was not just in response to increased demand. It was more a replacement for higher cost, lower quality Chinese production. When the price dipped below about USD100/t long term that Chinese production turned off. However the Chinese mines are still there. They did not turn off instantly, it took a year or two, and they will not be able to turn on instantly, it might take 6 months or a year or two. But I don't think there is any doubt that the Chinese will ramp this iron ore production capacity back up again and it will reduce the iron ore price. They cannot afford to sanction Australia and refuse to buy its iron ore but they can ramp up their own production. When this happens it will be the lower ore quality Australian producers like FMG that suffer the most because the higher quality producers like Rio and BHP will have ore that is in greater demand.
I think this risk is why the FMG share price is not higher. I am a fan of FMG. I like the company and I think they have better management than BHP particularly. However this is the risk.