The 'half price' fares don't apply to Sydney to Melbourne flights AFAIK. The few individuals I know who've flown recently suggest that quite a few QAN flights on this important sector have many empty seats, that REX also isn't doing well but Virgin Australia (which has reduced its daily flights, so it may not be a valid comparison compared with two or three years ago prior to the pandemic) is doing better.
Agree that there's a lot of 'dumping seats' by QAN. Amazing it's doing this when it's so highly indebted.
This doesn't help in working out whether flights (counting everything, including non-flight overheads) are profitable but Alan Joyce's comment that he's aiming for 'cash positive' (no mention of 'profitable') flights suggests by and large they are not.
The Budget prediction that 'international travel will resume (markedly) by mid-2022' is not helpful to any international carrier that used to serve Australia, with QAN the worst affected. It will benefit from a claimed '100 repatriation flight' but while it'll make a profit on each due to the Federal Government paying, it's no substitute for being able to bring many more of its international aircraft back into service.
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