Btw, let's assume for a sec that the plan works out and we are producing at 10ktpa in 2023. Call it 2024; doesn't really matter much.
By then, imo we will have a larger resource/reserve base and longer mine life. Our US asset should also be doing something interesting (i.e. adding value via being in development/JV etc)...
I mention this because it means that potential valuation at that time is not limited by the CURRENT resource/NPV etc.
So, if one was to base potential valuation for that time (say 2024) on a basic P/E metric..... what might that look like?
10ktpa @ say US$10k/t margin = $100M
P/E of say 12-15 = about 10 bags from here, even factoring in dilution to help fund the expansion.
...and who knows what prices will really do, considering the massive demand growth ahead, and who knows what P/E is "reasonable" in a HOT sector where customers are fighting over supply. Further upside extremely likely imo.
A rough scenario and estimate, sure, but good enough imo considering the various uncertainties.
Yes, a lot of water to flow under the bridge yet, but bring on 2024!
IMO
DYOR
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