Steel mill profits are at their highest levels for at least 5 years And this is still considering the current price of IO.
Stocks for traders and mills fell last week by 6-7% and arrivals of new IO also fell. All of these factors will continue to support IO prices imo.
The down stream demand for steel products continue to grow - and that is what I'm most excited about, that and the fact no new meaningful supply is going to come on line for at least 5 years. My estimate is that with the current demand growth expanding at a rate that is far greater than new supply by the time the new meaningful supply comes on line it prices won't be severely impacted a la 2015 etc. We won't see prices collapse below $100 for a long long time, and in all likely hood they will remain elevated above $130 + for at least the next three years.
Can anyone show me more meaningful supply of IO when the market is already in deficit and that gap is widening not contracting?
Last year China produced more than 1.1bwt of steel, a record amount. This year based on YTD production figures 2021 will be ~10% but more likely 20% above that rate. With exChina steel demand exploding its going to be stronger for longer!!
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