IMU - A Sykes Summary, page-9

Oh my goodness, Browndog!!

A blast from my past...Way back then Imugene was a one trick pony, but damn it looked like a good trick to me. I did a lot of reading at the time. I was also very impressed by the scientific team behind it and the involvement of Axel Hoos. PH was less famous back then, but clearly had connections.

To be honest it has taken longer than I expected and more dilution, but I stayed with it and steadily built my holding because at every step the science became stronger and the scientific and management team likewise. Some of the development timeframes slipped a bit - almost a universal issue in Biotech - but Imugene has never made a seriously bad step in all that time. When they took the strategic leap of licensing the work of Prof Kaumaya and bringing him on board that seemed like a master stroke to me. Breathtaking.

We have PD1-vaxx as a result - and B-vaxx also - but beyond the individual products that partnership gave Imugene a commanding position in B-cell immunotherapy. It meant that if B-cell immunotherapy works as well as T-cell, or better, Imugene would be dominating an entire new field of immuno-oncology. It was an incredibly bold step to take and confirmation that the leadership is as brilliant as the scientific team.

And now the results so far on Her-vaxx, and the early data on PD1-vaxx, really are making B-cell look as good as, or better than, T-cell. Certainly safer, with minimal to nil toxicity (confirmed now by Her-vaxx; B-vaxx and PD1-vaxx at least to cohort 2). Also quite possibly more effective than T-cell MABs and with greater duration of effect, plus immunological memory.

It will be the wider scientific and big-Pharma community which needs to be convinced but, after years of very cautious statements, when the Interim Her-vaxx Ph 2 results came out in November our CEO stated that the data "validates the entire platform." It was a big statement too make.If big Pharma agrees - and with a little bit more confirmatory data I'm confident they will - then it's off to the races....

For that reason I believe the current SP is entirely justified based on the November results from Her-vaxx alone. If we then get confirmation of Her-vaxx effectiveness in the PFS report now being compiled, today's SP will be blown away. That report may take a few more weeks, but a strong result from the PD1-vaxx 3rd cohort report, which I think will come out sooner, would kick it higher in the meantime.

I haven't even mentioned CF-33 - the second strategic surprise rabbit. The in-vitro and animal study results are electrifying. That is no guarantee of success in human trials, but if CF-33 works it could end up bigger, in commercial terms, than Her-vaxx and PD1-vaxx combined. CF-33 could well make Imugene the gift that just keeps on giving.

Assuming, of course, that it isn't taken out in one hit with a successful take-over bid. That seems now less likely to me though. Although PH has previously indicated that a take-over is the desired outcome of all small biotechs, those comments were a couple of years ago and Leslie has recently stated that a partnership deal "is the trajectory" they are on. She also emphasised partnership as her goal over a year ago, as shown in an article in the Pharma letter (if you don't subscribe, the link may not work for you but it may allow you one viewing - here is the url):
https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/eligible-imugene-thinking-ahead-to-actively-developing-a-bd-department

I don't like estimating future SP values and some of the numbers being thrown around here are a bit wild. However there is a reason I am still here, despite my average buy in of around 1.6 cents (or somewhat lower if I take out the IMUOA options I exercised for 2.6 cents). Quite simply, I believe that Imugene's combination of IP (including the Mimotope platform licence) and their specific drug products still has enormous potential. A licensing deal for Her-vaxx now looks very possible to me and it could be followed by others for PD1-vaxx and CF-33.

So I think the share price has strong potential to go a long way still. I wish everyone good luck - the patients most of all.

I try to keep a sense of perspective, and I do place family and friends above my investments.

With that in mind, however, I am still very comfortable holding what I have. After a long slow plod I must admit that it's become a very exciting ride. I'm not going to let the excitement blind me. I watch carefully. I would bail out immediately if I saw something I really didn't like, but that hasn't happened yet. I can't see a good reason to bail, and I can see very good reasons to stay on the train.

Cheers

Dave