hi soredawg. I used the terminologly of 'wildcat' pretty loosely with respect to Johnstone. The term itself is pretty loose and generally revolves around drilling in an area not known for production and based on a lot of faith!
There's no strict percentage success ranges on a wildcat well, it really depends on the circumstances however you'll probably hear people saying it's anywhere from 1:40, to 1:10 chance at best. Even well defined wells are a 1:10 chance...
What we do know, is that Johnstone is within a producing basin and has had extensive seismic and geological analysis over many years, hence its risk profile is reduced substantially. I'm relatively confident about the structure and the teams assessment of it so will look forward to seeing it drilled when the time comes...
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