WRONG... ... (cue funny tv buzzer sound).
No, I don't believe that at all.
How could I, when the announcement didn't word it that way?
eg: May 2019, coincidentally when the price was 3.1
As it happens, I've also been here since 3 cents, but I didn't recognise your profile, sorry.
Did you change it recently?
If you did, my apologies for assuming that you were a newbie.
It sounded as if you had made the assumption that many newbies do - that everything is headed to China.
But it wasn't just that ambiguity in your statement, or the low number of total posts against your profile.
Your first comment about VMS was only last week - but you've been quite regular since then with 10 posts in 10 days, and that's only for VMS - so it seemed much more likely that you were either a newbie (or a second account for a day trader), in either case, I was feeling cheery, so a friendly note seemed appropriate to help prevent any further misconceptions that our IO is being sold to China...
As a long time holder, you'll recall the chats we've all enjoyed in this forum about it, as well as the pro's and cons of that announcement.
I think the others have summarised it far better than me in the past, but for any new holders who are just joining us now.... basically here's the top 3 points off the top of my head:
a) we were headed for great profits way back at $90/t, so no matter how rainy it gets in China, as you suggest, (nor how much the Chinese government say they'll cut back on steel production, for whatever excuse it may be this week) we'll still be raking in more than enough to expand into Mt Lindsay - even if the prices "slump" all the way back to $100. It's still more than was budgeted.
b) since our IO is sold to Singapore, not China, we have less risk of ships getting delayed (although if we get paid halfway, they still need to unload and get back to do it again, so ships that are not currently on the regular China routes are - for the most part - more available, as best I can see. Otherwise the shipping industry is certainly experiencing some challenges meeting demands, due to hold ups for various reasons, not just China disputes or the backlog of unloading anywhere that's still a consequence of the canal blockage, long after it was cleared. There's still also covid, which is slowing things down in some ports more than others.
c) since the Singapore deal is for 2 years, that's basically everything "in stock" at Riley anyway (not counting the other nearby deposits). So we don't need to chase any additional take-off deals in China (or anywhere else yet).
Basically, there are far more reasons that Singapore is important to VMS than merely the price.
But to read the AFR this morning, newbies can be forgiven for assuming otherwise.
The headline: "Fundies Fret over IO peak"
Hilarious... It was only July last year that $90/t was considered great profits.
So anything over the previous high of $180 is like the creamiest cream this industry has ever seen.
Yeeeharrrrr!
DYOR & GLTAH
(20min delay)