Yes. I agree with your analysis about the share price if the FDA do approve the application. And your rational.
But I note there are wildly optimistic posts above your post which opine no downside movement if Novartis pull the plug. This is rubbish. It will tank. Well sub $1. It will mean they are not satisfied about the product. If, after looking at the data, they turn up their nose, who would think it had any prospect? Disaster.
One would think it there would be a real risk of breaching loan covenants.
Obviously, if the announcement is that Novartis will continue, then the SP will rise. Maybe $2.20 to $2.80. Still a lot of risk, but at least there is still a chance.
Moderated, page-28
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