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    A friend shared this story with me. Have a good weekend guys:


    Dryblower on how Juukan Gorge is driving the Winu copper project

    EXPECT to hear a lot this week about the Juukan Gorge incident which occurred exactly 12 months ago, and while a momentous event in Australian mining Dryblower reckons he is watching something almost as significant, a new “think small” trend emerging in big miners.


    Dryblower on how Juukan Gorge is driving the Winu copper project
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    While not obvious to everyone, it is likely that one of the after-effects of Rio Tinto destroying an Aboriginal rock shelter adjacent to one of its iron ore mines in WA is connected to the think small trend.

    The most noticeable link is that Rio Tinto is working hard to rebuild its reputation with local communities by taking steps which will include expanding its operational footprint to demonstrate a lasting commitment to wealth and job creation in its backyard.

    That's one reason why the Winu copper prospect, located about 400km north of the company's iron ore mines, is of above average importance even if of below average grade.

    Pushing ahead with Winu, a potential development which would once have not even been seriously considered by Rio Tinto because of its tiny size, has become a near-certainty for two reasons.

    Firstly, Winu is a demonstration by Rio Tinto that it remains keen to invest in a region which has caused it great corporate pain and triggered widespread criticism from government and shareholders.

    Secondly, Winu is a project which might become a template for other small mines that are becoming essential for the mining industry as the discovery of big orebodies prove ever-more elusive.

    BHP might not appear to be following Rio Tinto's think small experience at Winu given that it just opened Australia's biggest iron ore mine at South Flank but there was a second BHP event last week which had a whiff of think small about it.

    The other deal was a $22 million farm in with Encounter Resources over the Elliott copper project in the Northern Territory.

    While Elliott has the potential to be a major sediment-hosted copper discovery it might also prove to be similar to the small but very rich copper and gold orebodies which are found little more than 100km south at Tennant Creek.

    As a first target there is no doubt BHP and Encounter will be hoping that exploration reveals something which rates as a tier one discovery, but as a back-up for both players a Tennant Creek style discovery would be a handy second prize and one which would test BHP's view on the future of copper mining.

    Until recently, big miners only wanted big orebodies but with demand for copper soaring (along with the price) and new mega-mines nowhere to be seen it might a case of having to settle for smaller options, or risk declining copper output.

    Both BHP and Rio Tinto want to expand their copper business, but it is Rio Tinto which has the biggest challenge having suffered a series of setbacks over the past 10 years, including problems at Grasberg in Indonesia, Pebble in Alaska, La Granja in Peru and Resolution in Arizona.

    In a recent research report, analysts at JP Morgan said that the problem with only looking for tier one copper assets is that there probably are not many left to find and when they are found they are difficult to develop thanks to multiple layers of environment, social and governance (ESG) issues.

    That led to a question: "Is small scale now tier one in copper?"

    Yes, was the bank's answer with the old measure of tier one being large, low cost and expandable being adjusted with the removal of size as a test.

    "The focus on large assets has come at the expense of ignoring smaller, yet high returning and relatively short payback period opportunities," the bank said.

    Winu, as currently understood, is certainly small, with a start-up output expected by JP Morgan to be 37,000 tonnes of copper a year plus 51,000 ounces of gold - roughly half that of the DeGrussa mine of Sandfire Resources which last year produced 72,238t of copper and 42,263oz of gold.

    A big difference between those two mines is that DeGrussa is a high-grade operation whereas Winu is a large low-grade orebody, but one which could generate a handy rate of return of up to 23% on capital invested at the current copper price and a seven-year payback for a mine with a life of at least 20 years.

    If Winu gets a go ahead later this year it could be the start of a new way of operating for Rio Tinto, and show other big miners that it is possible to successfully develop small mines, especially if there is the prospect of expanding through exploration success in the future.

    At any other time, there is little doubt that Rio Tinto would be seeking to offload Winu because it is so small.

    But, with the dual pressures of needing to expand copper production and to show communities relatively close to its all-important iron ore mines that it is not afraid of investing in development then Winu could be just what Rio Tinto needs.



 
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