I've decided to bite the bullet and talk about the elephant in the room:
Cabo DelgadoI will go over why I feel there is nothing to worry about, as the problems in Cabo will
not move South imo
I am not condoning it, I think it is terrible what has happened, but I also need to be realistic about the risk to my investment
A few bullet points then i'll go into it below
- Mozambique is mainly a Christian country
- Cabo Delgado is mainly a Muslim region
- Cabo Delgado is ~2000km north of MRG land on the North East coast
- The problems started in 2017 when a cleric came to Cabo Delgado and started to stir things up
- The capital of Mozambique is at the bottom of the country
- As with many countries, a lot of money goes into the area around the capital and the rest far away gets forgotten about, the UK is a prime example of this, Mozambique is the same. In Mozambique the North was forgotten about, if I remember right there wasn't even a road across the border into Tanzania until recently, it was just jungle.
- Gas was found off the north coast of Mozambique, billions of $$ flooded the market from overseas companies without putting enough into the local economy
- It became a target for ISIS
- Much of the trouble is being run by people coming over the border from Tanzania, many Mozambique "foot soldiers" have stated they would quite happily stop fighting if they had access to a steady job and an income. There are reports of non-African people running the Tanzanians.
- I have contacts from when I went to University and some now live in Mozambique, each one has laughed when I asked about the trouble moving South as in their words there is no way it'll happen....
You can see just how far away the Cabo Delgado region is away from MRG land:
I would suggest everyone to read this article it explains a hell of a lot about the situation:
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2021-05-02-the-transformation-of-mozambique-into-fields-of-straw-and-the-resulting-fires-of-conflict/From this article, you can see that South Africa has a huge interest in what happens and will not let it move down the country
https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/africa/leaders-meet-to-thrash-out-security-deal-after-total-declares-force-majeure-in-mozambique/
Now you may think that the North Mozambique is the only gas going to SA, well it's not, there is the
Rompco Mozambique to Secunda Pipeline which is already in operation, it goes right past MRG land and would be what the Corridor Development area taps into for supply, before it goes on to SA. This again shows more reason why SA would not let any trouble to move South in Mozambique
https://www.gem.wiki/Mozambique-South_Africa_Gas_Pipelinehttps://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/5/17/sasol-nets-361-million-on-mozambique-pipeline-stake-salehttp://www.inp.gov.mz/en/layout/set/print/Exploration-Production/Mozambique-Basin-Discoveries/Mozambique-Basin-Four-Fields-With-the-Highest-Volumes-of-Gas-on-Site
You can take a lot out of this article if you read it in full:
https://www.africanews.com/2021/05/18/total-s-mozambique-lng-project-to-take-center-stage-at-the-france-africa-economic-summit/Outside of all of this the are many companies that would suffer more if the trouble started to move south, here are a few examples:
SVM -
https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/svm/They are in Malawi which I know is not Mozambique, but it's a hell of a lot closer to Cabo than any MRG land, but more importantly, their route for shipping product is a port in the north of Mozambique
I'm not putting this project/company down in anyway, it just shows the crazyness that people think the trouble will move south and people/other countries won't step in with help to stop it.
Another company prob more relevant is Kenmare
https://www.kenmareresources.com/Now Kenmare is in Mozambique, they are an Irish company, the mine HMS, and produce 7% of the world's supply
As you can see they are also well to the North of any MRG land, you can also see the Savannah/Rio JV area
I'm happy to share research, hopefully, this helps people
You will prob guess that my risk profile for MRG Metals is lower than most, I find the way with spec is to do proper research fully into a situation as sometimes you find gems, and in my opinion, this is one, it's just going to take a little time for people to realise it.
(20min delay)