Couldn't agree more. At today's valuation it would make sense to take RBL private, invest in the business for 2-3 years and then IPO it overseas
Recent transactions suggest a business like RBL should be valued at 4-6x GTV. Look at Depop, Poshmark, Vinted, etc. Instead RBL trades at 1.5x. If you use 4x GTV on their 2024 guidance of $1.5bn the company could be worth $5bn. Discount that to today at a 15% and you get to a $3.5bn enterprise value. That's 4x higher than current valuation. One can argue 4x-6 GMV is crazy but the point is you have a lot of headroom here with RBL at $3 per share
The other thing is their 12.5% EBITDA guidance for 2024 doesn't make any sense to me. If they really increase gross profit margin from 28% to 41% their EBITDA margin should be 20%+
ETSY BUYS UK RESELLER DEPOP FOR 1.6B USD, page-2
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Last
33.0¢ |
Change
-0.005(1.49%) |
Mkt cap ! $94.66M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| 34.0¢ | 34.0¢ | 32.0¢ | $33.43K | 101.1K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2697 | 33.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| 34.0¢ | 8746 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 19/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| ATG (ASX) Chart |