Got the envelope out.
NSR US$200 ton, 1mtpa t/put = $200M pa x 6 years initial LOM $1.2B
less capex $160M = ~$1B / 6 years, less 35% tax = $108M pa x forex = ~$140M AUD averaged FCF pa.
140M x PE 6 = $840M, 60c per current SOI.
The online NPV calc coughs up a post-tax 485M AUD @ 12% discount. Pre-tax 850M AUD.
Upside case.
10Mt @ 1.25Mtpa. Capex ~US$200M. Same margin. 8y LOM = $1.8B after capex, annualised $225M.
Less tax x forex = 188M AUD FCF pa. PE 8 = 1.5B, ~$1 per share.
AUD NPV 12% post tax 605M, pre tax 1.05B.
All ways looking up.
New World Resources Initiated at Speculative Buy by Canaccord Genuity, page-6
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