ten reasons why carnegie is a "buy"

Ten Reasons why Carnegie is a “buy”

1. Wave Energy Potential

Wave power is the capture of energy by ocean surface waves to produce electricity generation. By-products can include water desalination and the pumping of water into reservoirs for energy storage. Wave energy is a renewable, zero-emission source of power. 60% of the world lives within 60km of a coastline, removing transmission issues. As water is approximately 800 times denser than air, the energy density of waves vastly exceeds that of wind dramatically increasing the amount of energy available for harvesting. In addition, wave fronts are predictable for days in advance making it easy to match supply and demand.

According to an independent report commissioned by CNM and produced by globally recognised ocean resource specialists RPS MetOcean, at least 35% of Australia’s current base load power needs could be economically generated from wave energy. Australia has a potential near-shore (less than 25 metres water depth) wave energy resource of approximately 171,000 Megawatts (MW), approximately four times Australia’s current total installed power generation capacity. According to the report, of this near-shore wave resource, a conservative 10% is estimated to be economically extractable. This means that around 35% of Australia’s current power usage could be met by harnessing wave energy. The results also demonstrated an effective wave resource availability of 97.5% exists, making base load (near constant) renewable power generation possible.

US President Obama is specifically supporting ocean energy. The White House web site says "On Earth Day 2009, the President unveiled a program to develop the renewable energy projects on the waters of our Outer Continental Shelf that produce electricity from wind, wave, and ocean currents. These regulations will enable, for the first time ever, the nation to tap into our ocean’s vast sustainable resources to generate clean energy in an environmentally sound and safe manner." That is a very large endorsement for ocean energy.

2. Worldwide CETO Rights

The northern hemisphere CETO intellectual property rights were recently re-acquired by Carnegie from Renewable Energy Holdings (AIM: REH) for 252 million new CNM shares (approximately 35% dilution of the share register), subject to shareholder approval. In basic terms this means a 35% premium for 10 times the potential revenue.

Even though the wave resource is superior in the southern hemisphere, the number of possible sites with good wave resources close to big population centres is much, much larger in the northern hemisphere plus approximately 90% of global power consumption occurs there. Locations like the UK and Portugal have very strong financial incentives for wave generated power in terms of targeted wave energy feed-in tariffs and/or renewable energy certificates. In addition, CETO pilot sites in Bermuda (2MW) and Canada (4MW) are already planned.

With the REH deal, Carnegie also inherits the REH JV partnership with EDF EN, a 50% subsidiary of French power utility Electricity de France (EDF).

The benefits of this transaction are well summarised by Paterson’s in their 10th June 2009 broker report:

"• Simplification of the CETO ownership structure.
• Removal of licensee risk. The risk that some day the CETO license could be terminated by the owner.
• Improved access to capital. It is easier for the technology owner to raise new capital as opposed to a licensee. Access to Northern Hemisphere markets also improves access to Northern Hemisphere investors.
• Access to Northern Hemisphere market. More than 90% of the world’s population live in the Northern Hemisphere, representing more than 90% of the world’s power market.
• Access to REH’s commercial sites. This will significantly increase Carnegie’s portfolio of project sites that may be developed in the medium term.
• Better positioned for Government Grants. Carnegie expects to be better positioned for securing Government Grants as the technology owner, rather than as a licensee. The Company can also pursue grants from Northern hemisphere governments.
• Closer relationship with EDF EN. EDF EN has over 2,200MW of installed renewable power capacity in operation and another 1,000 under construction. Its parent company is one of the largest power companies in the world. Directly partnering with EDF EN can provide many credibility and resourcing benefits to an emerging company like Carnegie.
• Transaction structure does not require cash.
• Intellectual property and know-how synergy. The current ownership structure is somewhat inefficient, with the IP ownership in a separate entity to the development know-how. Having both in the same entity allows the development knowledge to add value during project evaluation, site selection and negotiation phases."

Wave energy in the northern hemisphere is currently more lucrative than in the southern hemisphere. This is because of more aggressive renewable energy targets, and in the case of Scotland, because of the scarcity of suitable areas for wind farm development. Here are two examples of northern hemisphere wave energy pricing:

2.1. Portugal pays 23 Euro cents per kW/h feed in tariffs. That is €230 per MW/h. If you were generating 10 MW of baseload wave power you would be earning €1,656,000 per month which is approx. €20 million per annum. The feed-in tariff for 50 MW is €100 million per annum.

2.2. A wave power generator in Scotland will receive ROCs (Renewables Obligation Certificates) of 5 x £37 per megawatt/hour = £185 (in the UK wave power ROCs will count as two times the value of regular ROC’s, but that figure is five times in Scotland). That is £185 for every megawatt produced for every hour of generation. If you were generating 10 MW of baseload wave power then you would be earning £1,332,000 per month, which is about £16 million per annum (more if the market value of each ROC is higher as they can be on-sold to high carbon emitters). A 50 MW plant would generate £80 million in ROC’s per annum. (This calculation is independent of the feed in tariff. The feed-in tariff would produce additional income over and above that generated by the ROC’s.)

What is the market potential for Carnegie? Carnegie can expect two main sources of income:
· As a wave farm project developer in its own right;
· As CETO technology owner Carnegie can earn royalties from partners and licensees that develop CETO based projects.

3. Australian Wave Energy Sites

CNM has secured access to prime wave energy sites in WA, SA and VIC all with excellent wave resources and good prospects for wave power generation plus they are all easily connectible into the electricity grid. In addition CNM has also signed an MOU with the Department of Defence for Garden Island and a power off-take agreement with Synergy for the WA grid. A 50 MW CETO demonstration plant was originally proposed to be in Albany where the wave resource is the best in the state.

The site of this demonstration plant was to be formally announced in mid 2009, however as of the date of this posting, there are reported plans for a project with the Department of Defence to build a pilot CETO wave energy farm to supply to power HMAS Stirling on Garden Island. The plant is planned to be 5 MW capacity with 25 CETO III units deployed. At 5 MW this will be the largest operational wave power plant in the world and will be Carnegie’s commercial demonstration site. It is to be upgradeable to 50 MW and at this stage is seen as the most likely candidate for the commercial demonstration site.

WWF has recently reported that building 1.5 GW of wave energy power stations by 2020 would create over three thousand Australian jobs and generate enough clean electricity to power 1.2 million households. Building a total of 12 GW by 2050 would create over 14 thousand jobs. WWF also reports that “wave energy is an ideal source of baseload power – it is highly predictable and reliable, particularly along the southern coastline of Australia where regular storms in the Southern Ocean deliver constant swells to the shoreline.”

Carnegie forecasts that by 2020, approximately 1,500 MW of CETO wave energy capacity could be installed along the southern coastline of Australia, contributing around 4% of Australia’s forecast electricity needs – emissions-free. To achieve this, the combined area occupied by CETO wave energy facilities would be less than 1,000ha (3.2km2). Carnegie has already identified a number of potential sites for CETO projects that offer an ideal premium wave resource, good access to the electricity network and close proximity to suitable water depths.

A summary of these key Australian wave energy sites (from the Paterson’s broker report) is as follows:

“Garden Island (Western Australia) – secured.
• Proposed location for CETO 3 – the Company’s commercial demonstration plant.
• Garden Island is the Royal Australian Navy’s largest base. A Memorandum of Understanding has been signed with the Australian Department of Defence for collaboration, onshore site and power off-take.
• Wave characteristics: >65% availability of 2m wave, 90% availability of 1m wave.
• Connectible into WA transmission grid.

Albany (Western Australia) – secured.
• 5 year exclusive offshore investigation license with 30 + 30 year lease option.
• Exclusive option from Albany Shire for onshore generating plant to be situated on the Albany
Wind Farm site adjacent to the offshore wave licence area.
• Wave characteristics: >90% availability of 2m wave.
• Estimated extractable resource >200MW.
• Connectible into WA transmission grid.

Port MacDonnell (South Australia) – secured.
• 3 + 3 year offshore investigation license with preferential option to lease.
• Wave characteristics: >90% availability of 2m wave.
• Connectible into National Electricity Market.

Phillip Island (Victoria) – preliminary approvals.
• Exclusive MOU with private landowner for onshore generation site. Government permission
granted for preliminary wave activities.
• Wave characteristics: >90% availability of 2m wave.
• Connectible into National Electricity Market.

Portland and Warrnambool (Victoria) – preliminary approvals.
• Government permission granted for preliminary wave activities.
• Wave characteristics: >90% availability of 2m wave.
• Connectible into National Electricity Market.”

4. The Competition

While there are many and varied devices that harness wave and tidal energy there appears to be little competition from fully tested, working devices. To date there are few if any examples of wave energy facilities that are connected to an electricity grid. Additionally, most first generation devices are deployed above the water line and are subject to damage from violent storms. CETO is less susceptible to storm damage as it is anchored and completely submerged plus there is a proposed mechanism that allows it to shut down and ride out the most violent storms. Most of the competing devices generate electricity in or underwater, which is problematic due to the electrical shielding required and the related infrastructure and transmission costs.

I have compiled a very brief table of some of the major competitors with their flagship product (wave only – not tidal) and status:

Company	Product	Floating or Submerged?	Electrical Generation	Status
Aquamarine Power	Oyster	Mostly submerged	On shore (hydrokinetic)	In development – not deployed for testing yet
BioPower Systems	BioWave	Fully submerged	In ocean	In development – not deployed for testing yet
Carnegie Corporation	CETO	Fully submerged	On shore (hydrokinetic)	CETO II units deployed off Fremantle, CETO III in development
Finavera	AquaBuOY	Floats on surface	In ocean	Test buoy sank, have pulled out of wave energy to focus on wind energy only
Oceanlinx	Oceanlinx	Above surface; Mk1 anchored, Mk2 floating	In ocean	2 prototypes deployed off Port Kembla, Mk1 and Mk2
Ocean Power Technologies	PowerBuoy	Floats on surface	In ocean	PB-40 (40 kW) prototypes deployed off Hawaii and New Jersey, PB-150 and PB-500 in development
Pelamis	Pelamis Wave Energy Converter	Floats on surface	In ocean	Aguçadoura (Portugal) wave project is on hold indefinitely, P-2 Pelamis version in development
Wavebob	Wavebob	Floats on surface	In ocean	In development – not deployed for testing yet

CNM plans to deploy 25 CETO III units off the shore of Garden Island WA to power the federal department of defence installation of HMAS Stirling, for commissioning in early 2010. This plant will generate approximately 5 MW (maximum) of power which would make it the largest wave energy farm in the world.

Ocean Power Technologies (OPT) plans to build a 10MW – and possibly 100MW – wave power station north of Perth. They are also planning to deploy their new PB-150 (150 kW PowerBuoy) at the EMEC (European Marine Energy Centre) off the coast of Orkney, Scotland. Curiously they have no milestones for 2008 or 2009 listed on their web site.

Pelamis does not appear to have been particularly successful with its Aguçadoura (Portugal) wave farm as the project there is on hold indefinitely due to Babcock and Brown financing issues as well as technical difficulties. Pelamis is engaged in developing a second generation Pelamis device (P-2) which has been ordered by E.ON (one of the UK’s leading integrated power, gas and renewable energy companies). The P-2 device will be 180m long and will include a range of enhanced design features to improve performance manufacturing. It will be deployed for testing at the EMEC.

5. CETO Design Considerations

Wave energy manifests itself in an orbital fashion at the base of the wave, reducing in strength exponentionally as the depth below the wave increases. That is why it is important to generate the power at or near the surface of the wave. CETO’s buoyant actuator can oscillate horizontally whilst primarily moving vertically up and down just beneath the surface and is therefore well designed to capture the orbital wave energy in an efficient manner. CETO units are self-tuning to tide, sea state and wave pattern, making them able to perform in a wide variety of wave heights and waves of any direction.

CETO III is designed to operate in 20-25m depths with one to four metre waves. It is designed to operate at approximately 50% capacity in one metre waves, so a 200 kW (max) unit will generate approximately 100 kW under such conditions.

CETO units are fully submerged and permanently anchored to the sea floor ensuring that there is no visual impact as they are completely out of sight. This also assists in shielding them from the extreme forces that are present on the surface during violent storms. They are manufactured from steel, rubber and hypalon materials, all proven for over 20 years in a marine-environment. In addition, CETO has no in-ocean lubricants or electrical components.

CETO does not need a huge scale reactor or boiler to be able to build a power plant. Potentially, you could start with a small array of, say, five CETO III units and generate approximately 1 MW (maximum output) of power. This modularity also allows for more decentralised power generation and improved economies of scale in comparison to more capital intensive, traditional power generation methods which require a large up-front investment.

The wave energy can be harnessed for permanent base load power and for fresh water production by reverse osmosis desalination. The ratio of electrical generation to fresh water production can be quickly varied from 100% to 0% allowing for rapid variations in power demand. Desalination requires an open-loop system but Carnegie is also working on a closed-loop system for turbine water circulation.

6. Brief Comparisons with other Renewable Technologies

6.1 Solar (photovoltaic) – CETO does not have the night/low-light periods of down time and it provides more or less constant power generation so there is effectively no investment required for energy storage to even out the peaks and troughs. It is likely to be much cheaper than solar photovoltaic energy.

6.2 Solar (thermal) – Power generation can be evened out by storing heated water (or phase change liquids) for use in generation at night. Typically lower cost than photovoltaic and can potentially provide baseload power. It also requires significant maintenance in order to keep the reflective mirrors clean.

6.3 Geothermal – Wave power does not require the complex drilling of very deep and expensive wells and is generally closer to population centres as well as to the national electricity grid. This is a big plus for wave power. Most engineered/hot fractured rock geothermal sites in Australia are hundreds of kilometres from the national grid whereas all CNM wave energy exploration sites are very close to either the WA grid or the NEM grid.

6.4 Wind – As water is approximately 800 times denser than air, the energy density of waves vastly exceeds that of wind, dramatically increasing the amount of energy available for power generation. Waves are predictable for days in advance making it easy to match supply and demand. Wind is predictable hours in advance at best. The downside is that all the engineering for CETO must be done under water. Wind is only baseload if it is spread out geographically whereas CETO can more or less provide base-load power in one location where there are constant waves.

6.5 Biomass – A valuable method of utilising bio-waste but will remain a niche player.

6.6 Nuclear – Nuclear power is not strictly renewable energy but nuclear has the potential to produce emission-free power. It has the longest lead time and the toxic radioactive waste storage problem, plus there is absolutely no appetite for nuclear power amongst the electorate in Australia. The largest ever nuclear power station (1600 MW) is being built in Finland and is now more than 50% over budget and suffering lengthy delays. Plus nuclear power plants have large back-end costs associated with waste disposal and decommissioning. CETO of course has no feedstock costs and no waste materials costs.

Carnegie estimates wave energy costs of $155 per MWh for its commercial demonstration wave project and longer terms costs of $125 per MWh. No cost per MWh comparisons with other forms of renewable energy have been made here as a brief survey of the available information suggests the figures to be wildly varying and therefore unreliable.

Carnegie estimates that its 50 MW commercial demonstration wave farm can be built for $300 million, or $6 million per installed MW. The cost for geothermal power in Australia is estimated by Petratherm to be $6 million per installed MW (PTR Quarterly Report, Sept 2008). Petratherm also estimates a figure of $2 million per MW for installed capacity for wind. Wind has an approximate capacity factor of 33%, so this also gives a figure of $6 million per installed MW for 100% capacity wind power. These figures are estimates only but do indicate that Carnegie’s wave energy cost per installed MW is potentially cost competitive when compared to other renewables.

7. Australian Government Grants

7.1 Australian Government Renewable Energy Development Program (REDP)

There are only four ASX listed companies that have applied for the $300 million REDP grant [1]. Solar energy is now not part of the REDP as the solar energy applicants have been farmed off to the recently announced solar energy flagship program for 1000 MW of power generation spread across four plants, taking $135 million from the original $435 million with them. CNM is widely considered to be a front-runner for approximately $90-$100 million of the federal government REDP grant. The estimated total cost of the CNM 50 MW demonstration plant is $300 million. Any REDP grant allocation must be matched by a ratio of two for one private versus government funds. The $250 million HoA with Investec covers this private funding requirement.

According to The Australian newspaper “Sydney-based BioPower Systems has two projects - tidal and wave energy - that have met the criteria for REDP consideration, joining proposals from Carnegie Corp, Oceanlinx and Atlantis Resources in competition for funds”. The known REDP ocean energy competitors are:

· Atlantis Resources – 1 application for tidal power
· BioPower Systems – 2 applications, tidal power and wave power
· Carnegie Corporation – 1 application for wave power
· Oceanlinx – 1 application for wave power

Two companies have each deployed a pilot plant - CNM which has CETO III units in operation at their test facility off the coast of Fremantle and Oceanlinx which has two devices deployed off the coast of Port Kembla. The Australian newspaper reported that “BioPower, which is backed by the venture capital arms of Lend Lease and CVC, currently has two pilot projects under development – a 250KW wave energy facility at King Island, and a similar-sized tidal installation at Flinders Island – both in conjunction with Hydro Tasmania”.

The REDP information guide requires each applicant to have a working pilot plant although it seems the other three ASX-listed applicants (geothermals GDY, PTR and GER) have met the eligibility requirements but none yet has a pilot plant. It is extremely likely that the ability to demonstrate a working pilot plant will be a significant factor in the decision making process.

[1] There has been mention in the media that Infigen (IFN) has also applied to the REDP for a wind related project but the company has made no announcement to this effect.

7.2 WA Government’s $36.5m Low Emissions Energy Development (LEED) Fund

In February 2009 Carnegie was awarded a $12.5m grant from the Western Australian Government’s $36.5m Low Emissions Energy Development (LEED) fund. The funds are payable on a one dollar for every two spent, and will be applied towards the commercial demonstration plant, likely to be located at Garden Island.

7.3 Victorian Government Renewable Energy Projects Fund

The $72 million fund forms the next stage of the Energy Technology Innovation Strategy (ETIS) grants. Management believes $25m of the $72 million fund is possible for Carnegie. Given that Carnegie is in the process of securing three Victorian wave energy exploration sites which suggests that a grant from this fund is a possibility.

8. Partners

CNM has a heads of Agreement with Investec[1] for $250 million funding if CNM is granted a federal REDP grant. This is a very large commitment for what is essentially an unproven technology and therefore represents a significant endorsement for the CETO technology.

CNM's joint venture partner in developing European projects is EDF Energies Nouvelles (EN) [2], a 50% subsidiary of French power utility Electricity de France (EDF), one of the largest power generation companies in the world.

CNM has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the electricity retail corporation Synergy, Western Australia's largest energy retailer. The MoU is an electricity off-take agreement and sets out the initial obligations on Carnegie and Synergy in relation to the purchase of electricity from the first stage of a wave energy project in the south west of Western Australia.

CNM also has a MOU with the Department of Defence for wave power exploration at Garden Island in WA. Carnegie believes there is sufficient wave energy potential offshore from Garden Island to develop a wave energy project harnessing energy from the ocean to generate electricity and / or desalinated water using the CETO wave energy technology. A Wave Energy Facility would initially be used for testing commercial scale CETO units as part of the commercial demonstration phase. This could, in the future, provide Defence on Garden Island with a standalone, sustainable, clean source of electricity and / or fresh water. A 5 MW wave energy facility on Garden Island is now planned.

WWF has recently endorsed CNM’s CETO technology in a report entitled “Power to Change: Australia’s Wave Energy Future”. While CNM and WWF are not partners as such, this is a significant endorsement from one of the most well respected and conservative environmental groups in Australia.

[1] Investec Bank (Australia) Limited is the Australian subsidiary of the Investec group, an international specialist banking group with a market capitalisation of $A4.4 billion (3 April 2009), listed on the London and Johannesburg Stock Exchanges. Investec has a full banking licence in Australia and, through its Project & Infrastructure Finance division, provides project finance solutions to energy, water, and waste projects in Australia, New Zealand and elsewhere. Investec has a strong track record in renewables, with significant financial experience spanning pure advisory roles to providing a wide range of debt and equity products. Most recently, Investec acted as developer of its own wholly-owned wind farm projects, two of which were recently sold to an Australian utility. Investec is rated BAA1 by Moody’s Investors Service.

[2] EDF Energies Nouvelles, a 50%-owned subsidiary of the EDF group, is a major player in the worldwide wind power and renewable energy market. Since 2007, the company has been accelerating its expansion in solar photovoltaic. This segment became its second priority after wind energy. The company has established positions in the green energy market and ranks among the leaders in its priority markets. Hydro power is EDF EN’s original area of expertise. Micro hydro power is the first technology in which the company developed know-how. EDF EN operates hydro power facilities with about 130MW in installed capacity. The EDF group is a major European energy company with installed electricity generating capacity around 127GW and annual sales 64 billion euros.

9. Desalination

CETO can utilise reverse osmosis to desalinate water by pumping seawater at high pressure through a membrane to produce fresh water. CNM will stand to gain substantially from the rapidly growing market for water desalination. Desalination is considered by water supply experts to be an approach of last resort to solve water supply issues. Therefore, due to the enormous energy requirements there is no justification for supplying the power for this from existing fossil fuel powered generation. Carnegie is in a unique position to gain substantially from the installation of stand-alone desalination plants that require no external power input.

Desalination can provide an additional source of value-add by switching a proportion of the high-pressure sea water from power-generation mode to water-desalination mode for periods of non-peak power usage such as in the middle of the night.

CNM still needs to do more development on the desalination process as the yields are not sufficient at this point for standalone desalination. The company is focused on the power-generation mode of operation as phase one for commercial demonstration.

CNM is shortlisted to provide power for the new $955m desalination plant near Binningup WA. The state owned WA Water Corporation is looking to supply 80 per cent of the plant's 25MW requirements from an established renewable source – most likely wind – with Griffin Energy, Pacific Hydro, Verve Energy and Investec among the shortlisted companies.

There was a report (in the Australian) that the Water Corp plans to choose a commercially unproven technology for the remaining 5 MW of power generation. Two wave energy producers have tendered for the contract, as have a landfill waste energy producer and a biomass energy proposal from Verve Energy. The wave energy producers that have tendered are Carnegie and US-based Ocean Power Technologies.

10. The Elephant in the Room

Climate change – a perfect storm is developing. In May 2009 the atmospheric CO2 concentration was 390 PPM (parts per million) of CO2. This concentration is rising at approximately 2 PPM per annum. Many climate scientists agree that we need to stabilise this concentration at somewhere between 350 and 450 PPM to avoid a two degree rise in temperature and reaching a possible tipping point.

An ETS (emissions trading scheme) will be introduced imminently here in Australia. In addition the Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (MRET) scheme will be expanded to a new RET scheme, beginning on January 1st 2010. The new RET targets will ramp up from 12,500GWh for 2010 to 45,000GWh for 2020, to support Australia’s renewable energy target of 20% by 2020. In addition, the fine paid by utilities not meeting their obligations under the RET will rise from $40 per megawatt hour to $65 per megawatt hour. The Australian Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) spot price as at May 2009 was approximately $50 per MWh.

There is also the chance that (once passed) the ETS will be stronger than first planned because of increased global action, for example, the emissions trading legislation that was recently passed by the US Congress. Legislative measures that mandate subsidies and assistance to renewable power generation will continue to grow because we cannot afford to retain the status quo. There are significant feed in tariff rebates/renewable energy certificates available overseas (see cases for Portugal and the UK above). Any energy investor should consider factoring these regulatory framework changes into their investment strategy.

Risk factors

· Costs versus other renewables will be an important factor – the company is yet to prove that CETO will be cost competitive against other renewables.
· Securing equity funding for commercial demonstration project including locking in Investec’s funding and the REDP grant.
· Funding CETO development budget.
· CETO III is much larger scale than CETO II and has not been deployed in-water yet.
· Stated capacity of CETO III is 200 kW but that is maximum capacity in 4m waves; standard operating capacity appears to be 100 kW in 1m+ waves.
· Poor results during commercial demonstration.
· Break through in competitive wave power designs being developed – watch for results from sea trials at purpose built facility in Scotland.
· Maintenance – issues may include descaling, mechanical/pump failures, water pipe failures.
· Direct, standalone water desalination is not economically viable at this stage.
· There is inherent technical risk and CNM is a speculative stock - please DYOR!

Notes

1 The above is not to be taken as investment advice.
2. All dollar values unless stated otherwise are in Australian dollars (AUD).
3. Any errors, inaccuracies or omissions are unintended. Most of this is based on freely available information from ASX announcements and some of it is my own personal opinion. Information has also been gathered from the Carnegie web site (www.carnegiecorp.com.au), the Patersons' 10th June 2009 broker report on Carnegie, the WWF report “Power to Change: Australia’s Wave Energy Future”, the EDF EN web site (www.edf-energies-nouvelles.com), the Investec web site (www.investec.com) and various other online resources including broker reports and announcements from IFN, PAX and PTR.
4. There are risks with any new technology. There are examples above of technologies which have failed to live up to their promise or have failed completely. There is no guarantee that CETO technology will be any more or less successful.
5. Other Carnegie clean technologies have not been evaluated here.