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10/06/21
05:08
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Originally posted by toly:
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Once again I have been asked by some fellow shareholders if is time to take a profit on Lynas. Notably some regulars on the HC board are divesting just a bit but you have to remember some up took up our position back in 2015 @ $.038 (adjusted $.38) so it might be a good time to enjoy the fruits of their labor… As I recall Amanda sold a few shares recently possibly to purchase a new house or another investment opportunity, whatever the reason it is expected that at some point long term shareholders take a bit of profit. That said and just for the record, I have not sold any shares since my initial position and I have no plans to sell in the near future… Today, I watched the US weather on one of the national stations and it showed that much of the New England area (US) is experiencing record temperatures. Also the city of Miami is proposing a 20 mile wall through the middle of the city to mitigate storm surge resulting from hurricanes... I don’t mean to bore those from Oz but you can easily change the name of the US New England area to New South Wales and the name Miami to Cairns. Bottom line is that it is getting hot and the weather is becoming as unpredictable as the Lynas share price… As a result there is a growing call from industry to adapt our society to electric on many levels and soon the world will be crying for the technology and the building blocks needed to execute these changes. IMO the attention paid to climate change is going to accelerate very quickly, even exponentially as time goes on… That change is already begun on a subliminal level for Lynas as rare earths are rapidly becoming a catch word. That said, the short term share price really doesn’t mean so much to me, rather it is how the internal dynamics (the board, management, and the mission) are executing the current business plan and how that relates to potential future earnings… I can hear the groaning from somewhere but one must remember that the level of the knowledge shared by most of the regular posters and lurkers on Lynas is virtually unheard of with other companies. At any given time there are many of us constantly scanning the internet for new and current information on Lynas and for the most part that info is quickly posted here on HC. In my opinion this allows HC readers to be one up on the trading public… Our resident Dr. Looi provides scientific information and the analysis of that information well before the public can digest yesterday’s news. Then we have the valuable data and analysis provided by mikja who obviously understands both the internals and potential promising future ahead for Lynas. It is much appreciated that these investors and many other investors are willing to share their DD online... Think about recently when the share dipped because of operational uncertainty at the LAMP. We were reassured in real time (by the good doctor) that life was just ducky and the bags of Nd were still going out the door without interruption. Sure I knew that the sky was not falling but being reassured by a scientist with boots on the ground puts us way ahead of the general investing public... At the end of the day it might be prudent to take a bit of profit however Lynas remains a large part of my portfolio. I feel very comfortable with Lynas as both a long term investment and as a US investor, and it is a great hedge against the US dollar… Lynas will be the dominant company in the rare earth arena and will continue to define the rules of the game maybe without the recognition. Soon the analysts’ will wake up to the actual performance and potential of Lynas and give the average investor the go ahead to take a position. As this happens I think many of us will well rewarded for our shared DD and quite content with our patience… JMHO…
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Just one last comment what do you think S& P 500 PE will be in two years? 2025? here is a historical chart to helpS&P 500 PE Ratio - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends 10 Year Treasury Rate - 54 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends Now ignoring one time items like loan forgiveness they have never made 60M in a year and in fact have lost over 300M + while AL has been CEO. I may be wrong but I think Lynas will be lucky to have a PE of 20 in a couple of years this has nothing to do with Lynas just market changes. The S&P 500 is almost 40 rights now I expect it will be 10~ 15 The higher the PE right now the faster it will fall. Lets assume a PE of 25 I think that is high by allot. my guess is 15 maybe even 10. now lets assume a SP of AUD 7.00 just a little more than its resent high. Many people on this board were saying lets have a $7.00 Party. 7.00 / 25 = 28 cents times 900M shares = 250 M profit a year. Now you take it from here what price does NDPr have to sell for to lift profits to that level? Assume 10.5 KT a year even though they have never been able to meet next rates for much more than a month never mind a full Q. Did you see the article last week about how upset the town officials in Texas were because when a reporter asked they did not even know of the plans. So Lynas has not even talked to town officials yet never mind apply for a permit. Do you think Texas will be contributing profits by 2025?