Rex,
(nice post)
Alcoa shelved a a 2.2 billion upgrade last November.
link-
http://www.latentpet.com/_content/documents/543.pdf
Not sure they would be running at 100% with lots of roses with that considered.
BUT - I have nothing else - so given everything you've said - I'm looking into Alcoa further.
TSV haven't responded yet on this topic