Hey mate - This is going to be a very difficult exercise haha
For simplicity, I would use the references from ZIP's recent annual report (page 12) specifically, as well as the CAGR predictions from IBISWorld - see my references below.
" The total addressable retail market as it stands now is 22 trillion dollars with a current BNPL penetration of 1.6%. Ibisworld prdicts that the BNPL industry will continue to grow at 9.8% annual over the next 5 years."
If in 5 years from now, BNPL penetration will be 10% (for example), we can assume that ZIP's revenue will decrease by 10/1.6 = 6.25 times of what it is now - this figure will assume that all other BNPL businesses are also capturing equal market share.
ZIPs reported revnue of 1billion now because 6.25billion.
Let me know what you think.
Chart - Z1P, page-10604
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Last
$1.15 |
Change
-0.070(5.74%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.258B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $1.23 | $1.25 | $1.15 | $20.57M | 17.21M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 746060 | $1.15 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.16 | 17735 | 4 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 24/04/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$1.17 |
Change
-0.070 ( 3.72 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $1.23 | $1.25 | $1.16 | 5299742 | ||
| Last updated 15.59pm 24/04/2024 ? | |||||
| ZIP (ASX) Chart |