criptonomicon,
you state that the markets can go "up, down, or sideways"
and that it "wobbles 10 points before it makes up its mind"
from my experience, the market is a lot like my wife...
by the time you work out whats she's thinking, she's changed her mind! :-)
i guess what im trying to say is that the market can go "up down or sideways at any minute in time...you may get a clear signal that its now going to go up, only to find that it was a false signal!"
good luck.
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