Running discussion on SP, page-46242

Might not be a popular opinion but IMHO the share movements is possible the most obvious I've seen in terms of a positioned VWAP for placement.

The question is whether it's working capital until FID or the equity component of the capital funding. I'm backing the later.

If it's an equity placement something in the realms of 100M-125MUSD will be required IMHO. Ultimately that will suggest to the market that this will in fact go mining and a balance sheet to support remaining debt arrangement. Would be around 1Bn shares issued - dilution impact is large, but the real question would be what would AVZ be worth with 130M AUD in the bank and then a seemingly stage-gate step towards production.

SOI would be circa 4bn post a raise of that capacity. If shareholders are to break even i.e. S/P remain at 15c or so AVZ mc would need to be around 600M. IMV if they raise that amount it will suggest that FID is highly likely and a justifiable MC. In fact post FID i have stated that 1BN would be an appropriate valuation based on NPV and project ownership.

Ideally for AVZ retail, they get some of these key news items delivered to hopefully give the MC a kick in the guts and therefore equity placement lessens dilution and in turn supporting MC re-rate isn't as high. On the other hand, if i'm in the equity component I want guarantee on my return so you ideally want some very very good news on the horizon to ensure a ROI. (not all these players are interested in the 3-4Y hold) a large % is placement pre-news. Create liquidity into the news events to offload.

For interest sakes;
The current 30/45day VWAP anywhere around 15.5c/15.75c.
5% discount is around 15c
10% discount is around 14c

If i knew nothing about the stock and only viewed the chart my opinion would be a 85% chance the stock is being set for a placement. Given AVZ's cash position and impending equity component, i'd say it's more than likely. For the record, i think they need to have paid for the extra project % prior to going through all the FID. So i would think if they don't go uuuuuuuuuge. They'll at least raise to pay for the extra acquisition, it's just my opinion if you're going to do that and you're able raise the remaining equity component such that the debt part for FID is a formality.

Differing opinion to most (especially the bulls) here, and yes I hold and will still hold and as suggested would buy more if 16.5c breaks. TBH i think market would view it quite favourably. Lots of people (including myself) usually don't like entering stocks unless a raise has recently been done.

My 2c

SF2TH