I still stand by my initial comment in post 53867622, Ganfeng got a fantastic deal, we got the best deal on offer, but importantly the project will go ahead, is funded & completely derisked with offtakes.
From Ganfeng’s point of view, they got 50% of the $1.2b Goulamina project for $65m ($130m is in the JV so they own 50% of it). What a deal for them. Although at our expense, being such a good deal will make them very eager to get the approvals etc & cement the deal. As the resource is large & open, they can expand it to many times the production shown in the DFS. Why would they now want to buy spodumene from anyone else when they can buy it from themselves? As history shows, there is every chance Ganfeng will put a takeover offer in for LithiumCo at some time in the future.
I initially thought we might trade around the 55c mark ($260m for the gold (US$130m) A$168m for our share of Goulamina JV). The $260m is close enough to what the market valued our gold at prior to speculation about the Lithium deal. The $168m is the market price Ganfeng were willing to pay for 50%. As they got a fantastic deal & our gold is very undervalued, I’d have thought that 55c would be a bottom price.
Of course many people are profit taking. The 4 banks/brokers that @boy1 pointed out were the biggest net buyers of FFX & bought some net 17.4m shares prior to the deal. I’d say not for themselves but for their mates, good customers etc.These holders bought purely for a short term gain - that’s a lot of shares coming onto the sell side on the trading halt release. Combine that with a deal not meeting expectations (expectations based on the incorrect initial media reporting) and you can see why we’re at 49c.
Once profit taking has stopped, the deal is looked at with fresh eyes, I think we'll get up to the 55c I mentioned. Then as we get closer to the FID, then construction the value attributed to Goulamina will eventually reflect the US$1.2b NPV. Of course don't forget Morila, we've got diamond drill results from the main pit coming shortly.
Below is my own summary of the deal
- Mali Lithium BV (MLB) will own Goulamina (Lithium du mali SA (LMSA),set up for 50/50 JV
Govt get free 10% of LMSA and additional 10% at fair value - Loan carry interest
- Ganfeng pay U$130m into MLB & organise $64m loan to bring MLB’s funds to DFS capex $194m
loan interest to be agreeable, otherwise Ganfeng to provide a $40m loan at SOFR + 6% (SOFR currently 0.1%)
- $2.5m deposit, $39m initial subscription (Dec Q), $91m with FID within 6 months (June Q ’22)
- 50% offtake, moving to 100% after loans organised and commercial production within 4 years of transaction completing
market price formula, floor price, gets priority over other Ganfeng offtakes
- Conditions precedent inc Chinese approvals (3 months), Mali approvals etc, Ganfeng shareholder approval + possibly ours.
- Firefinch operator & manager with Ganfeng help
- Demerger after transaction completed & Ganfeng made it’s initial investment
- FFX will retain 20% of LithiumCo (so 8-9% of whole project after Govt’s take)