Been doing some digging over the last week to ensure my thoughts on this one are still in order.
Business has suffered substantially from the following:
1. Sales Cycle, extremely slow & difficult to implement into banks- in normal times let alone during COVID. I mentioned this right back when the spike came at the last capital raise.
2. Competition is high, everyone is fighting for the same $$.
I see positives being the move towards other industries, transition towards longer term contracts & UBO verification. The technology alone is worth multiples of the current MC.
Tailwinds are strong with a COVID recovery as corporates/ FI's reopen / open their investment slates into 2022. Automation/ cost out of verification & credit decisioning is a theme that is here to stay.
Contract growth is there, would be getting pretty close to break even now.
Management are extremely strong.
From a technical perspective, big gaps emerging telling me sellers are gone- No change in Sub holders tell me insiders are holding tight.
I have taken more over the last week and will continue to buy more, i wish this thing had listed options as i see those as a great way to get some more leverage into this.
The market is pricing KYK as if its going t go out of business, my thoughts are the following will play out over the coming months.
1. Next quarter will be stronger than expected- not anything amazing, but closer to break even.
2. UBO verification will create some more interest. I would expect to see some contract ann's outlining the product offering.
3. SP will head back towards 9 or so c as they will be targeting 10 to raise again- my thoughts are this is very likely
4. Don't rule out a cheap T.O given the value of the tech- unlikely in my view given the top 20 are diamond hands/ wont sell- KYK is too strategic as a play for them.
5.potential de-listing from ASX and listing in the UK or U.S... i dont think ASX investors really get this business- the working capital cycle and that its not ever going to deliver the kind of growth people assume all tech stocks will generate.
Based on the above- not hard to see/ would be reasonable for a MC at 50M- that's 3 bags from here before dilution.
Do your own research- but im buying as much as i can.
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