As others have noted Somers offer is a low ball bid with no takeover premium. Forager with 11.75% shareholding can block a compulsory takeover. Strong recovery in the Australian economy in the past 12 months means a likely larger writeback of credit loss provisions/ receivables impairments then forecast as at 31 March 2021, resulting in a boost to nta ( 28.0c ) show in the FY21 accounts. ( "Shifty" Somers hiding future cashflows by overly conservative provisions on receivables ? ) Strong operating cash flow in the next 12 months as 66% of receivables are less than 1 year if weighted by contractual cash flows. ( Somers using much lower "expected cashflows" in current assets pushing rest into non-current assets ) Minority shareholders forgo franking credits if they sell on market.
The following figures are from Appendix 4E for FY21. Gross Receivables= $271.0M Impairments= $74.4M Net Receivables=$196.6M
Expected writeback of credit loss provisions: Baseline case=$10.5M Faster recovery in the economy=$20.5M
Given the strong improvement in the economy over the last 12 months writeback of impairments could be between $20.5M and $74.4M . At $20.5M this adds 6.1c to nta=28.0c . OR assuming 50% of $74.4 adds 11.0c to nta. gives a more realistic nta between 34.1 c and 39.0c .
Franking credits = 8.3c per share. These credits could be distributed by an OFF market takeover bid with part of the bid being paid by a special fully franked dividend. This probably needs ATO approval but I have seen it done in the past.
Receivables runoff = big operating cash flow in the next 12 months. Weighted by contracted cash flows <1yr $123.7M 1-5yrs $63.7M ( before derivatives p31 of Appendix 4E) Weighted by expected cash flows <1yr $ 67.1M 1-5yrs 129.5M ( see current and non current assets)