Grange's Iron ore pellets at A$427/tonne, page-4

What does everyone think what the dividend will be? Getting close to the end of quarter and I loaded up on a decent batch of GRR , hoping to get some decent gains on the quarterly profits and dividend announcement so thought I might be fun to speculate a little!

I am thinking the profit for this quarter will surpass the 150mil and could even come close to 200mil so with the previous quarter of 113mil it should be in the 260 to over 300mil ball park.

I won't make an exact prediction but instead will give my opinion on probabilities of different outcomes with a short description of why I give it this probability.

1 No dividend or less then a 2c dividend --> 1%
I think a very unlikely scenario but not completely impossible if they announce they will go ahead with SD or other project, take/over before the dividend announcement. If that is the case not necessarily a negative.

2 Maintaining the 2c dividend --> 4%
Unlikely since this would drop their less then generous dividend policy to well under 10% of profits but looking at their previous actions not completely out of the question. I will sell ever last share of GRR if they pull this one out of the hat.

3 Raise to 3c --> 15%
The most likely of the more negative scenario's. A raise but a very stingy one.

4 Raise to 4c --> 50%
By far the most likely outcome. It would be a doubling of the previous dividend (which was already double of the one before that) so a relatively easy sell for management. It would probably stay very well inline with their previous payout ratio which was around 16% of profits. In my opinion (and many others here) this is very low, certainly considering the current profits and piles of cash. But I don't expect a change.

5 Raise to 5c --> 25%
We can hope! And really 5c wouldn't be unreasonable and probably wouldn't even break the 20% barrier (at least not by much) so still a very realistic possibility.

6 Raise to 6c or more --> 5%
It is possible! I don't expect this but with the current piles of cash a payout close to the max of 25% (which would be about 6c) is not out of the question. It is also possible a special dividend is announced on top of whatever the regular dividend will be. Again not expecting this but it would be great!

would be good to hear others thoughts (even if you think my prediction is ridiculous, please let me know why!)