Agree, the MC is extremely low and under valued but value will be significantly realised when the project de-risks. That’s why early holders will be rewarded with bags but it will take time and periods where the SP will drift.
How I see it very conservatively is that if we take just phosphate which has a NPV post tax of $70m, we should be getting 0.4x to 0.5x on the NAV at LI.
That implies an equity value of $66m after taking off the $4m debt. So roughly and at a very minimum it would translate to a MC of $26.4m, which is 30% higher than the last close.
That obviously values copper at zero, which is crazy but I’m happy to bank the upside and be conservative when it’s my money on the line.
As phosphate moves closer to production the discount will continue to reduce while we will get milestones and news on copper.
The key thing is that there will be no more dilution. Phosphate is fully funded and cashflows will fund the copper. So over a 2-3 year period I get to 8-10 bags from current levels based on my analysis.
Either way I’m making multiples on my investment here and I’m happy to wait. We just need the LI and then everything clicks into gear.
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