I don't have a target price. I do have a timeline guide that I will follow as long as coal prices remain relatively high though.
Honestly i'm not even sure if i'm holding short/mid/or long term.
- Short term we have the coal price bonus and low share price.
- Mid term we have fixed issues with Narrabri with increased production, decreased unit costs and improved coal quality. Along with decreased unit costs with Maules creek due to in-pit dumping. This should drop the production costs from the 74 back down towards the mid/higher 60's
- Long term you have vickery, which increases production by 50%. But unknown coal/climate issues.
Either way its a compelling story on almost any hold length.
I've said previously that i'm in a holding pattern until January. Although I now realize Jan quarterly does not have a pricing guide, so it will need to be the Feb half yearly update. So unless the coal price crashes, I plan to wait until then and see where coal prices are, and where the issue resolutions are.
The reason for this is solely because the current year financials have 3 terrible quarters and 1 improved. So it wont seem great. The price lag is still in effect. The high ash from narrabri and their issues are present. So their true profitability at current prices will still be hidden. Which i dont think will turn up until their next financials.
Having said all this, I don't trust the current coal price surge. I don't think it will last. If it does, I will just consider that as a bonus.
If trying to compare current coal prices to historical share prices. Current coal prices are similar to 2018/2019, but production is way down from then (for both NHC (no acland) and WHC (2million gone from narrabri and a little gone from shuttered mines), so if you just look at the charts you simply aren't getting the same price as back then. (Narrabri might be back to optimal mining in 6months -12 months. But will prices still be high?). Hence you need current coal prices to remain at this level until fixes are in place to exceed what they were then.
So long story short. My target price is simply much higher than now. But i'll consider what to do in 6months. I can easily see 2.40-2.70 in the short term. (2.40 was actually the pricing I got when I ran through the financials). Optimistically, a year out if prices remain >100 and issues are fixed I can see 3-4+.
As for "the call" podcast mentioned (nice find btw, as I hadn't heard of it) I listened and they said;
- "i see it at 4"
- "no matter how i tweak the numbers, i can't get under 3"
- they also mentioned the spot price numbers in an earlier podcast discussing NHC, and said if you overlay the spot prices with WHC you get 5.
(20min delay)