$90 a share on COVID ARDS Authorization ?, page-4

Good points Cato, but consider 45,000 patients per year, is only around 800 patients per week.

Right now in the USA there are over 4000 patients on mechanical ventilation per week, and approximately 50% of them do not survive. Even if they did ramp up production to the $90 AUD a share price level, they would still only be treating 20% of patients at best, with one of the only treatments that actually shows mortality benefit if on a ventilator.

I think with speculative shares, repeat performance year after year means absolutely nothing..... just look at what happened with after pay.

The speculation is not that they will treat 45,000 patients per year..... it is that they have said they will be looking to service 250,000 patients per year.... and that is only 1 of 4 extremely large indications that will probably get approved.

Just like afterpay the speculation is the exponential expansion that will occur in relatively 'short order' after the first approval. The good news is that Novartis is covering the expansion costs, which will be astonishingly enormous if they actually do ramp to 250,000 doses within say 12 months.