Just continuing on from what
@fooca wrote re the dilution.
Prior to the placement we had 785m shares on issue, last price 45c gives a market cap of $353m
Now it is still the same company post placement except we now have an extra (after costs) $46m in the bank.
All things being equal our new market cap should be $353 + 46 = $399m
Now we have 902m shares on issue 399/902 = 44c
Our post placement share price should be 44c.
But of course people got wind of the cap raise before the trading halt & we got sold down, so our initial market cap should have been much higher.
Also we are now more secure with the cash in the bank, that is worth value too.
I personally think we would be trading at 48c ish before people got wind of the cap raise. Take a cent off for the dilution (as above) and I think anything below 47c is an absolute bargain.
Of course theory & reality are different. Many are sitting on healthy profits & may choose to cash out because of the perceived overhang, or because of professional investors using their tricks to get the candy. Also there probably will be those that participated in the cap raise who will sell for say 42c for a 5% profit. Anything below that is just selling on fear because they don't understand the above and have no idea as to the value of the company. Unfortunately many "so called" investors are in that boat.
