'Are we expecting an optimised DFS and finance MOU to drop today or tomorrow ? Recent updated mineral resource and interview suggests we are . IMO'
In short, NO IMO.
Optimised DFS requires FEED Study inputs. FEED Study now 4 weeks overdue (i.e. since NF's comments at the Roadshow in late May indicated 1st week in June) however BTD suggests the FEED Study itself is being optimised (hence the delay).
Finance MOU possible (subject to 20-30% equity and ML IMO) but BTD believes that a modest equity raise ('modest' in the grand scheme of things) may come first. This uncertainty (when, how much dilution etc.), possible VWAP setting and EOFY selling / rebalancing seem to be the holding the SP back ATM.
As for the quarterly, that's still 3-4 weeks away, however it looks as though the official cash balance as at 30th June will be low i.e. assuming no equity raise prior to EOFY.
This is not a big concern at the minute IMO, however August & September are fast approaching (including the US$15m Dathomir payment) and with that I think we can reasonably expect some key announcements (including an equity component of some form) to drop soon.
An official update on the FEED Study, Hydroxide Study, MSEZ, Finance and ML would be nice.
I'm not in the camp that it's OK to be kept in the dark, especially when the delays have been, lets be honest, countless (a monthly update would suffice). But I can understand that much of what is going on behind the scenes is delicate & commercial in confidence and either way, it will be what it will be (though let it be known that pro-active shareholders can still make a difference in this day and age, and myself and others have provided some alternative ideas to management in recent weeks so let's see).
As an investor, the sort of general questions I keep asking myself include 'How much Lithium and Tin does the world need now and more importantly in the future? What are current spot prices and latest credible analyst reports suggesting? Will supply growth keep pace with exponential demand growth? What battery chemistry/s will dominate the EV landscape? What are latest trends for EV adoption, what new models are soon to be released & what size batteries (how much Lithium) will they require?
What do all of the probable answers to these questions and more ultimately mean for Manono? Does NF and co. have what it takes to realise the AVZ production dream (it won't be easy but the tailwinds are now visibly stronger than the headwinds IMO) or will they ultimately take the easier route and submit to a TO bid at a reasonable premium? How would I feel if a bid came in at say 50c? Not overly enthused to be honest ($1 maybe a little), but I can also understand that the journey thus far has been long and arduous for many who may think otherwise.
I won't lie. It's been rather painful to watch the likes of LTR, VUL, PLL, PLS etc. soar to magnificent highs while AVZ dawdles at ~60% below its previous high set back in early 2018. With hindsight, I should have invested there and elsewhere first, but my gut told me to stick with the asset likely to succeed & profit the most near and far into the future. That hasn't changed. My only concern has been and still is management, and management is almost everything as indeed they have the power to create or destroy value for shareholders.
In summary, Credit Suisse recently concluded 'Fasten the seat belts for EV acceleration.' With extremely favourable tailwinds (for both Lithium and Tin), do AVZ management have the skills (including being able to negotiate value accretive deals), desire and overall nouse to book a ticket and a front row seat (to possibly the greatest show on earth) for all shareholders? i.e. realising AVZ / Manono's full potential this decade. Soon I think, we shall all find out.
GLTA
Cheers
Elpha
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