Ann: Strong Carpentaria-1 Flow Rates, page-12

It's been a long time since QGC was able to to drill a CSG development well for $300k, more like $1M or a bit more. Water handling as you say is a major cost, though the production life of CSG is much, much longer than a shale well - up to 20 years is possible for a CSG well.

So yes, this well compares poorly, but this is a vertical well so it's just a proof of concept well. Next step would be a conservatively-designed horizontal frac and then stepping up to a full-size development well - 2000+ metres long and with dozens of frac stages. On top of that CSG is dry gas and if the Beetaloo works it will be because it produces both gas and liquids. So there's a lot more to it than just comparing flow rates.

I do honestly believe that the Beetaloo geology is good enough to match the sort of flow rates from the premier US shale basins, it will just take some time to figure out the best spots and the best technology. But that's only part of the challenge, the biggest challenge is that given the high costs in Australia and the almost total lack of infrastructure, the Beetaloo really has to be the best shale basin in the world to have a hope of being viable. None of the North American shale basins are this remote. On top of that it took 15 years for the CSG industry to get from the equivalent point to exporting LNG, and the industry is changing very rapidly. The large companies with interests in the Beetaloo would be aware of the risks of it becoming a stranded asset, particularly with ESG activist groups starting to heavily mobilise against gas.

Anyway, I'm confident enough in the rocks, and I think we'll see flow rates from Beetaloo horizontals pushing past 2 MMscfd before too long - probably the next generation of pilot wells from ORG and STO. Once they find the sweet spots and refine the frac technology further then 3-5 MMscfd is possible IMO. But shale wells tend to decline very quickly, >70% per year is common, so keeping costs down is absolutely critical, because you have to keep drilling new wells all the time to maintain production.

Whether the remoteness of the location will allow a cost structure that low is the big question for me. As I have said on the ORG threads though, it's fairly cheap to test this play (at least by big boy standards) so I'm all for trying. The more players who have a crack, the greater the likelihood of finding a sweet spot.