We'll see if my timing's good, we won't know for about 12 months. Conscious of the fact Rob seems to favor the overpromise / underdeliver model - which has led to the current malaise - but the simple facts as i see them are:
- They've doubled their direct sales team and have a broader TAM to sell into absent the ISS geographical restrictions
- They've bulked up their product offering, and there's early evidence the cross-sell / upsell strategy has merit (Vietnam school deal)
- They've got a better strategic distribution partner in Faria vs. ISS
- Faria is economically aligned to see Schrole succeed, given Faria owns 20% of the equity and earns a 100% margin royalty on each Schrole sale done through the Faria platform
- Gross margins will go up as Faria's clip of sales is lower than ISS's
- Rob's room for error is much lower than in the past given instos + Faria could gang up to boot him
- Everyone on the BoD wants the stock price to go up a lot, given their options have strike prices at $0.03-0.06.
At this end of the spectrum, you have to believe you can make 3x (or even higher) returns in short timeframes (2-3 years) - i don't think that's unreasonable here. If they go from ~$6M revenue to $10M in a few years, and the EV/S goes from 3 to 5, that's a ~3x return - and i don't think those assumptions are unreasonable.
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