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Iron Ore Price Trends Above $220 Per Ton

JUN 29, 2021 9:10AM EDT
Iron ore prices are currently trending around $220.50 per ton — more than double the last year’s levels. In fact, in June last year, iron ore prices had breached $100 per ton mark for the first time since August 2019 driven by China’s massive infrastructure stimulus amid supply concerns from coronavirus-impacted Brazil. The situation this year has not changed much, with demand-supply imbalance favoring the prices of the steel making ingredient this year as well, leading to a year-to-date gain of 39%.

As of now, prices are being supported by a decline in portside stockpiles in China.. Imported iron ore stocked at Chinese ports declined for four consecutive weeks to 123.95 Mt (million tons) as of Jun 25, 2021 — the lowest level in eight months. On top of this, weekly Australian iron ore shipments have been disappointing through June. Iron ore prices are gaining further thanks to increasing concerns over Brazil’s supply. Brazilian miner, Vale S.A VALE recently announced that it has halted production at its Timbopeba mine and part of its Alegria mine following a warning from an authority about tailings dam risks. The closures will reduce its iron ore output by around 40,000 tons a day.

Meanwhile iron ore demand from China is gaining from rise in infrastructure spending and renewed vigor in manufacturing activity. Despite the China government’s efforts to curb steel output to reduce carbon emissions, demand for iron ore showed resilience as mills that were not subject to output curbs continued to ramp up production. Healthy profit margins buoyed by higher demand and a rally in steel prices have led to a rise in production. Per the World Steel Association, global crude steel production was up 16.5% year over year to 174.4 Mt in May. This was primarily driven by record high production from China on the back of firm domestic demand and healthy margins at mills. Steel production in China, which accounts for more than half of the global steel output, went up 6.6% year over year to 99.5 Mt in May.

Among the other major Asian producers, India witnessed a 46.9% surge in production to 9.2 Mt in May as steel demand is picking up in the country following the resumption of industrial activities with the lifting of lockdowns and restrictions. In North America, crude steel production climbed 47.7% to 10.1 Mt in May with the resumption of operations across major steel-consuming sectors, leading to a recovery in capacity utilization and domestic steel production.

The World Steel Association projects steel demand to grow 5.8% in 2021 and reach 1,874.0 million. China's steel demand is expected to improve 3.0% this year. Further, the ongoing recovery in automotive and constructions sectors across the world will drive demand for steel and thereby for iron ore. In the United States, massive government spending to rebuild infrastructure including railroads, highways and bridges will significantly boost steel demand, thus raising the requirement of more iron ore.