GMG 0.70% $33.05 goodman group

cic or cap raise, page-32

  1. 758 Posts.
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    yeh right. Thanks Snowfree.
    Getting back to the thread, could it be possible that they won't need to go for a cap raise? I'm guessing that the only reason that they will want to reduce leaverage is in order to meet their maximum covenant gearing ratio order to refinance in 2010. They had a 41% gearing ratio at the end of 2008 which was within their covenants. The property values in china have started improving I believe which is will effect that ratio as far as I know.They have already managed to get through short term debt funding for 2009/2010. if they can get roll their existing facility that is due at the end of the year their balance sheet will look a lot better. Couple that with the savings from the dividend, asset sales in England which were the worse hit thus had big portion of writedown and mostly from the investments portfolio as well as the cut in work in progress. They might actually come out with a better balance sheet than we expect. They may also get to the required ratio through selling assets which is what they are doing. With most of their loss from end of 2008 being the result of non realized equity writedowns, they should be cash positive and may meet 9 cents EPS. If they can and are still negotiating to refi thier current facility with the existing bank won't that also give a boost to their balance sheet?
    I've seen a lot of comments from the shorters talking about vacancies and drops in rents and tenancies etc. but I believe GMG have a pretty stable income and the main loss is in revenue will only be in performance fees as their occupancys vary from 4 to 8 years. I have also read that industrial will be the first to come back in a bounce, faster than corporate and retail. Anyway, by reducing their work in progress and selling the assets that are interest baring and don't pay div, don't they reduce the need to cap raise?
    Am I totally wrong and a cap rasing must happen?
 
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