can you afford not to read this....?, page-9

SP - Firstly if you ever read Bill's social equity and capiltal markets blog (and thats what it is, he doesn't sell anything) you would know that he doesn't do that. Secondly he's not TELLING anyone anything. He's warning of what his 40 years experience is telling him is an increasing possibility. He's saying watch the price. If it starts to tank, step aside or be left holding the bag. Take what you will out of it, but please stop with the 'oh he's fearmongering' rubbish. Comments such as that show you've taken his thoughts completely out of context. Try actually following his blog for a month and you'll understand what I mean. Probably the best thing you'll ever do for your capital.

Enough on that, take it or leave it. Just have a plan IF it happens. You'd think that was a wise thing to suggest, but maybe just burying the head and hoping is a better option.


Bug - To clarify, Bill has opened and run a number of securities firms in Canada, US and Bahamas. He's very familiar with the 'sales' side of mining equities from a wholesale perspective. His experience is that stock promoters, and yes in this case gold, are very active when the going is good.

'so 'they' are going to take down everything?'

Ok lets getting something clear here. This move in equities and commodities (gold included) is due to two things. The injection of liquidity into the market as a whole and the weakening of the USD. This rally more than many has been very inter linked if that is the right word. Its not so much a matter of taking everything down. If anything its more a case of everything has been taken up - reason, very simply to recapitalise the banks before the commercial real estate shoe drops - and when the powers that be take that artificial support of prices away there will be a vaccum (again, for lack of a better word)

Also, Bug its not so much a case of if he is right. He's telling you that he is seeing warning signs that this is a possibility. Lets not kid ourselves here. Gold followers more than most know that the powers that be pull the puppet strings. Last night was a prime example. The whole world rallies on a lower USD.....except gold. If anyone thinks that the Fed and its tenticles don't have the capability, tell me what colour the trees are where you live...

If at around $1000 give or take, the price tanks hard one day out of nowhere or very counterintuitively (think two days after Bear went under), you know what is coming, thats all. Just know what your going to do. Hold tight and ride the whole thing through, or step aside and await better opportunities.

And finally if you want an even better tell than watching the gold or gold share prices, watch Teck (TCK) and Xstrata (XTA). They sell off on volume, get rid of the goldies for a bit.

In fact here is something I saved ages ago that Bill wrote that is very relevant and explains the above comment so I'll share it below:

"Do you recall what I wrote at the end of June about the $XAU (goldminer share index): “Two-day rocket!” That was the trap that sucked the gold bugs in, and then I saw XTA and TCK shares plummeted immediately after that. I have opined in the blog that these two stocks are traded by the world’s best traders, bar none, so I always keep my eye on them.
Maybe you recall the take-over of Canada’s base metals mining industry in the summer of 2006? Xstrata acquired Falconbridge and CVRD/Vale (RIO) bought Inco. Teck for Vancouver was in the thick of it. The other majors watched this fight for control of metal supply (and, to a large extent, prices). The others are BHP (BHP), Rio Tinto (RTP) and Anglo American (AAUK).
These are the world’s major metals miners, and in the first couple days of July their share prices also crashed. In each case, gold mining is a very small part of their whole operation. Trust me; there was no conspiracy against gold or junior companies.
When all these stocks recover, then gold will recover.
As I told you all along, the goldminers and the gold bullion would be the last off the dance floor. How many times have I written that?
Oil, then metals, then gold. Up, then down. Only occasionally is that cycle contorted.
I’d like you to study the charts of major currencies I provide in this report, and you will see confirmation of the busting of the commodities boom cycle, and the new Bull for the $USD. That Bull phase for the US Dollar will first have to test the 200-day Moving Averages support ($USD) and resistance (Euro, Pound, Yen, Loonie, CRB commodities index) before it really breaks out. That will trap more gold bugs and ‘peak’ oil bulls, causing them more capital losses eventually. But, then the $USD will start to move higher as the media starts talking about deflation.
The first round of deflation talk will knock the price of gold down to its cycle low in its ongoing secular (ie, multiple cycle) trend. That’s where I will be a buyer of gold again, maybe it’s here at 850-860, and maybe it’s down at 800, as originally forecasted by me, or even lower. Nobody knows. We just need to watch the data.
Yes, watch the data. Connect the dots. Close your eyes and ears to newsletter writers unless they have proven themselves to be 100% independent and objective in their assessment of prices.
You need to learn this stuff because you are trading against the top traders in the world backed up by whatever resources (computers, analysts, capital) they need to screw you over. They want your capital. I’m speaking of Humungous Bank & Broker, your personal and corporate financial advisor, the very people who trade against your order flow.


He spotted the commodity crash the moment it started to happen having warned a month earlier that it was a possibility. Watch the prices, they will tell you. Bill is just warning that he is again seeing the possibility.