Hi FrugalSage,
My assumption is that Bengalla (100%) production is 11 million tonnes p.a. This is what it is has run at the past couple of years, as NHC have increased control and taken over mine management. If you go back 3 or 4 years it was less than 10 million.
NHC 80% ownership basis = 8.8 million tonnes. This is all factored in to the modelling.
I also think this is a relatively conservative assumption. They completed some major maintenance 6 months ago and stated a the half year that they are looking to increase the run rate for production to 12 million tonnes p.a. Also, the mining permit is for 15 million tonnes p.a., although i believe to achieve that output, further capital investment is required.
If the get Acland Stage 3, then total production will be 15-20 million tonnes p.a. but i am not including that upside.
On the QLD port terminal, i have no visibility or understanding of whether that makes any money.
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