Great analysis Paul. I particularly like your delve into upside/downside risks. This industry is rife with risk aversion on reporting because being wrong on the wrong side is a death knell, but being wrong on the right side is somehow seen as "clever". Both are just as wrong. I would prefer more information and clear risk allocation (i.e. SAY your best estimate is 4.8MT but you are using 3.2MT for the analysis or SAY you think the grade will be 1.6 but you are using 1.4). MacDonald is one of the more conservative analysts so, I would say both he and you have a nice spot to fill.
On the conversion ratio issue, I would like to think that a company doing a greenfields drillout would get better conversion than most. If they run continuous basic optimisations as they go, and only drill to a comfort level below that (I assume most do that now for exploration cost reasons) then there should be fewer stranded resources at the feasibility level. Of course, it is highly dependent on gold price and anticipated gold prices, so we'll see.
Entering into the strip ratio discussion (WHY am I doing that?) it is JUST an economic decision that is finalised by the optimising algorithm. A "good" strip ratio is one that makes maximum profit and has nothing to do with a basic number, like 3:1 or 5:1. Those numbers are irrelevant except to throw into estimates as the analysts do and to roughly calibrate projects. At a basic level, an orebody that supports a 10:1 strip ratio, is a good deposit if it makes money, a 1:1 strip ratio that makes no profit is a terrible ratio. The grade needs to be higher than Hemi, for a 10:1 of course, and for the Hemi grades, the strip ratio will depend on gold price, mining costs, orebody orientation and all the other usual suspects. It will vary between deposits and pits, and probably end up around MacDonalds estimate, I would guess, maybe a bit higher. The scoping study will tell.
I did like the 30c+ MacDonald added to the share price for exploration.
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