Thanks, Hfguy, for a decent well-thought-out post. The likes of Adam A are making multiple threads unpleasant with their cerebrally hypoxic mentality shining through with every post.
There is so much misinformation on these threads. It's sometimes hard to read.
Regarding NE. If it is a dud asset, then it was a dud when it was bought, not when it is sold. If one can not see that cash is extremely helpful needs to rethink. If cash can help KCN help Thailand make an even better deal with more long-term value and secure downside survival risk, it's a no-brainer.
KCN furnished its list of demands to Thailand back in 2017. Thailand is scrambling in the background to get everything finished before the arbiters are finished their work. I believe that one could expect something in the later parts of the year, which gives everyone more time to earn money and buy more.
So, where is the value? One way of valuing a company is to discount future cash flows so let's look at KCN's future cash flows.
Is it in a USD $750m to USD $1B payout - perhaps, but I suspect a deal is what will ultimately happen?
The settlement will either be disappointing, average, or exceptional, and be that as it may.
The true value of this company lies with the 44 SPL's. Apon settlement a big drill program will start (actually they are already drilling) to find higher grades of gold. As one is aware, the higher the grade of gold, the higher the recovery rate. I am very confident there are higher grades and this mine is particularly sensitive to change in the grade. Increase the average grade by means of a blend we can realistically produce 200,000 to 300,000 ounces a year. At current gold prices, which I believe will still increase. We are looking at USD $1,000 profit per ounce.
200,000 * 1,000 * 1.3 = AUD 260,000,000 / 222,000,000 = AUD $ 1,17 per share, which is Profit / Dividend
300,000 * 1,000 * 1.3 = AUD 260,000,000 / 222,000,000 = AUD $ 1,75 per share, which is Profit / Dividend
The first of these returns will be fully franked as we have significant tax credits.
This is the VALUE we are looking for. How this is monetised is a different story and could be different from what I have outlined.
51% can be listed on the Thai exchange.
100% can be sold
Any other scenario
It is the VALUE that moves a share price and the value I have outlined above shows that this share is extremely discounted.
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Last
$1.38 |
Change
-0.080(5.48%) |
Mkt cap ! $355.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.46 | $1.46 | $1.38 | $790.9K | 564.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 24999 | $1.38 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.40 | 2446 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 15000 | 1.355 |
1 | 3650 | 1.345 |
2 | 8000 | 1.340 |
1 | 6141 | 1.335 |
1 | 376 | 1.330 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.420 | 40000 | 1 |
1.490 | 4258 | 2 |
1.495 | 7500 | 1 |
1.500 | 12112 | 3 |
1.530 | 11094 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 27/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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