NVX - a multi-bagger from here, page-12

Hi BSquire,

Yes absolutely agree.. I was perhaps being a little conservative. Somewhat unusual for a Complete Bull!

I've seen various references to synthetic graphite pricing, the one I had in mind was from a Talga (TLG) presentation / Feasibility Study in which they referenced a Benchmark Minerals chart of anode grade natural graphite, copied below. The grey line is the anode grade graphite which is a similar benchmark to NVX material.




However, a few comments..

1. Possible that NVX graphite more premium than CSPG shown in the chart.

2. This chart shows FOB China, which would still be subject to freight and in particular import tariffs which (I believe) the Trump administration added a year or so ago.. so US-made graphite, FOB US, would trade for even higher prices.

Using an extrapolation of these numbers, given the impact on the P&L & valuation, seemed just too good... although I did bump the price up to $13.5k in my 2030 bull case. Despite being a bull, I often I like to leave a little margin for error on the downside. It's possible here I put in too much!

I've also noted that NVX have noted a "$$" in their updated presentations re the price of their graphite (whether they compare their graphite offering vs competitors), comparable to natural graphite, and less than their original "$$$". I think they will aim to be competitive on price and take a large volume share of the overall anode graphite market.

Regarding COGS, I agree here too. Their input costs will be industry best... domestically sourced needle coke, DPMG to improve yield, low energy costs in TN, and state of the art, efficient furnaces to reduce energy consumption. Wow.

Will be very interesting to see how it shapes up!

Cheers
CB