Ann: FY21 BTM Revenue Results, page-165

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Phantom77

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15/07/21

21:30

Post #: 54537110
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Originally posted by jlo2012: ↑

Valuation is difficult and until PNV is profitable DCF or applying a revenue multiple are useful.

It's currently at a revenue multiple of x53 times if you put FY21 sales at $26mil based on closing SP today.

Often a revenue multiple of x10-x15 is considered high for a growth stock. Remember this is just a revenue multiple so should be much lower than a PE multiple because revenue is at the very top line before any expenses etc.

PNV has commanded a very very high revenue multiple for a number of reasons - biotech revenue tends to command better multiples, PNV product I believe has a a very strong gross margin (more of it makes its way to the bottom line), very large total addressable market and importantly, very strong YoY growth at 100% or there abouts.

The problem is that the growth has been slowing. Yes Covid will have had a major impact but it is possible that revenue was coming off a low base and will start plateauing for non-Covid reasons too. Still growing but maybe at 50% YoY for example. Great growth absolutely but at what price is the question, not the same price as 100% YoY growth.

If that happens maybe PNV only should have a revenue multiple of 20x to 30x times for example, rather than 50, 60 70x it has been trading at.

That would put the stock around the $1.30 area from some very quick calculations or a MC around $800mil.

I haven't done detailed analysis because, to be honest, I know the price and my current valuation would be miles apart and so haven't done the exact numbers.

Now if they return to 100% YoY or closer to that then things change but I'm in the camp of wanting to see more evidence of that return. The, in my view, unhelpful reporting style also gives off a flavour of trying to pretty things up as best as possible, so another reason to stay out. Anyway, as I addressed above, PNV has lots of positives that can afford it a higher multiple than normal but with growth coming off, everything still has a price.

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Thanks for the reply.
i guess there will be more dumping of the stock tomorrow.

but i dont understand why this stock is getting targeted for the dumping. There are lots of other bio stocks, that have little revenue but still high compared to their MC i.e. BD1, MSB, TLX, (i hold).

i am pretty confident that if they can sell their products during covid, they will do better when restrictions are lifted in usa. Thank god usa is getting back to business as normal, or else this stock is a long wait.

I think i can wait for another 12 months for the turn around, while hoping for signs of improvement within 6 months.

Last edited by Phantom77: 15/07/21

PNV Price at posting: $2.10 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last $2.33		Change -0.020(0.85%)		Mkt cap ! $1.608B

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Ann: FY21 BTM Revenue Results, page-165

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Ann: FY21 BTM Revenue Results, page-165

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