Locky101 .... call 111 !!
I have been through your numbers. Please check my ones below, which are so conservative, that I have to stop at 5pm to have a cup of tea.
You stated above $2.34/dmtu mining cost, however I was of the idea that E25 cost is actually $4.15/dmtu (or $132/tn 33% ore) for Stage 1.
I am using 65% recovery (Manga X assumption) and Giyani opex (USD 583/tn of HPMSM produced). So worst case scenario, actually rather "end of the world" case scenario to assess bottom line. I know you are assuming ~$100/tn of ROM processed above, so the one I use is ~2 times higher. Giyani flowsheet claims 90% recovery. Their CAPEX is ~USD$150M. Plus they have high cost for electricity and boiler. I guess we can tap into the gas line for the Drier, so cheaper opex and capex.
In summary, this is a pre-tax NPV ~ US$ 2B. (bottom line). Going to to US$ 2.5B plus (if I halve the assumed below opex (in line with reality) and use 80% recovery), i.e. either 1 year payback or yet another 6 months payback period project..... Someone correct me if I am wrong please.....????
Summary of Key Life of Project Parameters Bottom Line Realistic RoM Mined (kt/year) 300 250 Waste Mined (kt/year) 1,071 28% 893 28% RoM Processed (kt/year) 300 250 Mn Content(kt/year) 99 33% 83 33% Mn Recovered(kt/year) 64 65% 66 80% HPMSM Tonnes Produced(kt/year) 201 32% 206 32% Revenue (USD/t HPMSM) 1,500 1,500 Operating Costs (USD/t HPMSM) 583 292 Operating Profit (USD/t HPMSM) 917 1,209 Operating Profit (USD/year) 184,402,969 249,253,125
But wait, this is modular.... so effectively we can add extra $2B projects whenever the markets needs more HPMSM (every 2 or 3 years).....as there is plenty of ore.....
DYOR!!
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