UBS positive on, page-4

I note the upbeat comments from UBS, and its positive references to Sequirus being the #2 player in the US$6 billion global influenza vaccines industry.

Interested however in to what extent the technology behind the new mRNA Covid vaccines may represent an existential threat to CSL's 'old fashioned' flu vaccines.

At present flu vaccines need to be given annually, and are not particularly effective, providing only 40%-60% protection. As we know, the mRNA vaccine from Pfizer provides close to 90% protection against Covid, appears to have a long-lasting effect and is effective against a wide range of variants.

If a range of highly effective anti-Covid vaccines, including mRNA vaccines, can be developed from scratch and rolled out in less than a year, would it not be relatively straightforward to apply the technology to the development of a one-shot, long lasting flu vaccine (flu also being a coronavirus).

I understand that CSL has something fairly early-stage in its R&D pipeline (SA-mRNA influenza vaccine), but we don't seem to be cutting edge in this field, and have zero manufacturing capacity, so this looks to me like a potential risk to a significant chunk of revenue.