That all makes perfect sense to me and I think it could play out as you mention. The exploration upside and first mover advantage are huge. Hard to price but I wouldn’t want anything less then $7 per share. My advice to holders would be do not sell into market when the first offer comes!
I tend to think what is the negative in sandfire launching a $4 bid? They either will end up with Adriatic (for a much higher price then $4) or they start a bidding war. Either way they win.
Another scenario was posted by a major holder Datt Capital a few months ago. The post is as follows (posted on twitter).
Hypothesis: $ADT.ax would fit nicely into $S32.ax's portfolioClear geographic gap in S32 projects
-S32 looking to increase base metal exposure
-Big focus on ROIC - Vares' financial metrics are off the charts
-Material effect on shareholder return for S32
-S32.ax's best growth opportunities in Hermosa & Ambler years away from permitting & production.
-ADT.ax's Vares should receive full permits shortly.-
-ADT's exploration opportunity is significant in proven mineral belts in line w/ S32's strategy
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$3.19 |
Change
0.040(1.27%) |
Mkt cap ! $895.2M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$3.14 | $3.24 | $3.11 | $1.654M | 521.7K |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 2703 | $3.16 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$3.21 | 633 | 1 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 2703 | 3.160 |
1 | 633 | 3.150 |
1 | 633 | 3.130 |
1 | 633 | 3.120 |
3 | 11964 | 3.110 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.210 | 633 | 1 |
3.220 | 633 | 1 |
3.230 | 633 | 1 |
3.240 | 633 | 1 |
3.250 | 625 | 1 |
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