Will QAN survive?, page-963

With 25 years of trading experience behind me I am absolutely flabbergasted with where QAN is trading right now. I get bubbles in times of unbridled optimisim where investors get carried away with crazy forecasts but I simply can't understand what type of brain dysfunction makes investors think that paying this much for an Australian airline makes any sense given what's been going in in the world. As I've said many times before, it's trading with a higher EV than pre-Covid. That's utterly insane. And any hope of things returning to normal for a "rEcOvErY sToCk" thesis means that one is hoping that everything returns to where things were before for QAN with an EXTRA $1.5b+ of debt on their balance sheet. It's just bonkers.

The reality is that QAN will lose money for many, many years to come. They'll first resort to leveraging their balance sheet as much as allowable by banks and credit markets then they'll have to do another dilutive capital raise. Why anybody thinks that there is a prettier forecast than this for an airline paralyzed by an unprecedented pandemic is simply beyond any logic.There is literally a worst case scenario for Qantas playing out in broad daylight and the market still doesn't get it. They inevitably will when the horrific earnings data keep coming out.