Hi LB,This was posted on a UK board recently.I can't vouch for it as I don't know the poster but I thought it might be of interest.
SteMiS -
With the Nickel price now over $8/lb, Munali should be a very profitable mine.
Unfortunately existing shareholders have been diluted to almost nothing by the re-financing. The share capital will comprise At at 17 Dec 2008 180,736 $5m equity fund raising - 18 Dec 2008 19,470 Jinchuna Conversion of loan stock 10,000 Jinchuan Proposed $7m equity fund raising 135,615 Jinchuan Proposed $21m convertible issue 323,077 Jinchuan Resulting 668,898 [Not quite sure about the last item]
So existing shareholders will be left with about 27%. I estimate Jinchuan's holding will be about 74%. Jinchuan will also hold debt of around $55m (I think).
The previous assumptions were that Munali would produce around 20M lb Ni pa at a cost of around $3/lb receiving 70% of the Ni price for the concentrate.
Assuming 4 x ebitda, that would value the shares at around 14p. Of course there's other things in Albidon other than Munali. It all extremely rough and ready, but we might see 10p on listing if we're lucky!
As always DYOR
ALB Price at posting:
3.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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