never had any major issue with you and always found discussion with you productive.
several things bothered me within this report. mostly that it underperformed my estimates. (which has made me a little anxious for my apt estimates also)
quadfest : It may be possible with another sales event added to the calander year it may cause shopper fatigue. although to be fair it is only the first quadfest and id expect this the grow as customer are more aware and may be more ready in future. from memory quadfest saw similar increase in % of additional new customers as afterpay of ~40% so id consider that a successful debut. (not 100% sure if the 40% re quadfest was customer additions or increase in sales?)
re logo, yeah that is something else. maybe it will grow on you over time. I really didnt like the current apt logo when it launched, but now it seems fitting and the old logo looks out of place when i see it in a shop. so for my immediate reaction to the new zip logo was wtf,,,,, yuck! but let it sink in for awhile and see if it becomes identifiable to zip.
the spike in arrears was a shock. i had my fingers crossed about bad debts not going up and the small rise in the update wasnt a bother, but the jump in arrears makes me worried that bad debts will also go up in the medium term. (imo)
the slowing of growth in new merchants in the US was a surprise. from 55% last Q Vs 20% this Q. (admittedly i was surprised how high it was last Q, so maybe its just balancing out a bit.
seeing also that ANZ took 9.2M transactions for a value of 893M vs US 4.9M transactions for a value of 857M showing that ANZ average transaction is much lower $97 V $174. this in itself is no problem because of the difference in product. but my thought process is that zip anz (tap and pay) is becoming an everyday usage credit. and my concern there is with the zippay model customers can keep kicking their debt down the road by paying minimum repayment and $6 monthly fee. which becomes similar to carrying debt on a CC. (of course without the interest). customers who max out these limits will be great to keep a consistent $6 revenue coming in. but they will no longer be turning over their credit, meaning less sales and less merchant fees from that cohort of customers.
revenue looks fine. they have always held a higher margin, my opinion hasnt changed about its sustainability and i had always hoped it would shift to something more like zippay (maybe it still will) but with the above point im not sure im keen on that idea anymore.
im still trying to workout why my US transaction value estimate missed by so much. one possible clue might be that the average purchases size is much larger in the US (which i suspect is due to the $4 convienence fee, customer more aware that its not worth using quad on lower value items) and as a psychological point,,, when spending in larger amounts generally people are more aware of what they have spent and will be more cautious of other spending as opposed to keeping track of mutiple small purchases.
i will highlight anz customer growth was above my estimate. i think apt will struggle with anz customer numbers as its reaching maturity in this region.
overall i dont think zip is doomed to fail or anything like that. and the next ann could be around the corner that will boost the sp. I may miss out but personally im just over the lack of communication from the zip team. it really feels like shareholders are left in the dark on a regular basis.
few more points that i havent digested yet. this is just some thoughts for the moment.
i wish all the holders who continue to hold the best of luck I hope something comes soon to get zip back to the ATH.
Z1P Price at posting:
$6.99 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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