CXO (ASX) Ann: $6m Modern Manufacturing Initiative Grant

Originally posted by Kiwisfly9: ↑

I think you are quite right in asserting that long term it probably won't matter if it does or doesn't get updated (the merits of the project will ultimately speak for themselves) and that people won't care in a few years time with respect to when were producing.

Our major concern in future will be the expansion of our resources, upping our production targets, lowering the cost per ton in retrievall, seeking the best price for our product/ vertically integrating up the supply ladder and developing the other many resources that we have.

But...... that being said, as you stated, DFS's do offer a degree of extra interest and help raise funds if necessary. My thoughts are that we likely already have a fairly well-defined draft document that management have already commissioned just sitting on the work computers, along with updated costings, fully updated estimated resource size and a new price target per ton used to calculate our NPV10 etc.

If you consider the possibility that they actually were serious about releasing it but chose not to do so because A) the resources still needed further shoring up and B) the Spodumene price climb hasn't been quite as quick as hoped to maximise the document, it probably comes as no wonder that an executive decision was made not to release it. Particularly if they felt that the rises in CAPEX and cost per ton was about to significantly go up after the underground mining studies were completed but they were still working with a smaller total resource and LOM and a Spod price that maybe handn't moved high enough to at least be as good as it was before.

That being said, if we do get some pretty solid resource upgrades from our drilling campaign released and that spod price continues to keep climbing (and hits the target band before the end of Q3) it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the company finally release it at a strategically opportune moment.

The costs have likely already been for the most part sunk in getting it ready and if it is successful, having a wave of closely released major news stories that tick off big milestones in rapid succession is very likely to sent our SP to the stratosphere in a short period of time. This is very very good for the holders (and means a very happy ship) and it's also good for management as an extremely well-received DFS after offtakes and upgrades could help put some serious wind in our sails and push us past the 45 cent to access those Oppies and if necessary (but highly unlikely) do a CR if it was absolutely necessary.

If the costs are sunk already, then there is no harm in releasing it as in all likelihood, the lion's share of the work is already done anyway if they really are serious about FID this quarter. If the costs haven't been sunk then it might be a matter of perhaps a few tens or even hundred thousand to send it off and go through all the due diligence hurdles again with outside lawyers, accountants, geologists and consultants to get it re-released. This could be peanuts compared to what it could do for the enterprise and what it could do for us if it's a really good-looking document and significantly adds value to the company and shareholders.

But still, I digress. You're absolutely right. The long-term game is where this ultimately is at. 2 years from now when the mine is fully operational and is generating a blushing amount of free cash flow, none of this will be too important. And believe me, I look forward to the day when I can pay for the rest of my degree like it's just a routine bill and burn my student loan statement from NZ!

Expand

Kiwi, I admire your attention to detail and wholistic understanding of the process. You’ve really been there biggest advocate in this forum.
The hesitation I have after reading your reply is around the number of positive assumptions about mgmt actions take and the subsequent “if” comments.
Since I’ve been holder a little while now, I’m more accustomed to them not quite delivering all they say, when they say. You just had that very moment at Q2 end whereby they failed your belief.
I’m going to continue to be patient.
Mgmt have completed so much, and this is now a guaranteed success (IMO), just a question of how big the Spod resource really is.
And of course gold, silver, hydroxide etc etc etc and the potential Value & MC increase around these secondary parts.
GLTAH

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Last 11.5¢		Change -0.005(4.17%)		Mkt cap ! $246.4M

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