Either the chances of Shell exercising their option is good (therefore much of the success factored into the share price) - target 20c
or
The chances of shell exercising are not so good, (therefore only a small amount of success factored into the price) - target 30c-40c.
So which is it? This is the law of risk and return. If hotcopper is representative of "the market" then I would say scenario one as many on here say the shell decision is just about a definite.
Thoughts anyone?
assuming, page-3
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