1. The Cape Preston project is HUGE and the work is long term BUT the profit margin will be very slim. As with Pluto, Ausdrill is also a player. Work on projects of this size is always spread around the market to mitigate the risk of a sole contractor going belly up.
2. I wxpect that other elements of BDL's deferred order book are also being actioned .... but again with slim profit margins (unless BDL can renegotiate).
3. Gorgon civil bids would also have been received. The margins may be a bit better ..... but are unlikely to be over the top. It all depends on the timing and whether the likes of Leightons were able to stitch up sub-contract deals BEFORE the market got a bit heated. If BDL's price movements have anything to do with Gorgon speculation the market may have to wait a few weeks for a FID announcment.
4. The truck bucket market should now be looking up. Profit here over the next year or so should be OK.
5. Miners are drilling again. I have no idea about East Coast coal ......... but the rack price of drill and blast work for new customers ANYWHERE must be climing fast.
Back to the SP ....... well it once was at the 27c mark BUT there are discounted deals on the table. Thus my guestimate of fair value would be in the range of 20c to 23c.
