I went in hard to start when the price came down from 40c, and ended up with an average at 30.5c. I have been accumulating since, and have the average down to 29.0c. As I have been saying the low SOI and volume makes buying larger amounts of shares, without increasing the price difficult. Bottom of the top 20 is only just over a million shares, and the top 20 hold 68% of the company. Most of those shares are in escrow until Jan 2023.
So realistically, if you want in, you just have to bite the bullet and buy in. if you want more than 70000 shares now the price moves to 31c. to buy a few 100 thousand the price goes to over 32.5c. So you need to be patient. I have orders in down lower that keep timing out. TA doesn't seem to be much good for entry points as there are not enough shares or volume to support it.
Good news is, with such a low SOI, good news will kick the price up, if CHM can get the market excited. Market cap is sub $aud 100 million now. That would seem reasonable to good value, considering all pre-clinical work has been completed, and a phase 1 trial has been running since Sept last year. There have been no adverse events reported so far. Ordinarily, I would be thinking 3 to 5 bags would be available from here on a good report in Sept WRT safety and a hint of efficacy. However, they need to get the market excited, and wanting to buy in. And we need no holders needing to sell.
Longer term (well not that much longer really, potentially one phase 2b trial away from approval if the drug works) a market cap of many multiples is possible. As previously mentioned the is no real SOC for GBM. CHM will be announcing other cancers it will be targeting with the drug in the medium term. So revenue streams after approval should be good.
The drug seems promising. The leadership and researchers all seem top of the league. Drug approval potential a lot sooner than many other drug discovery companies. No effective SOC to compete against, so potential for large market share early on. Other solid tumor cancer targets to be announced. Novel delivery method. All adds up for good bang for a circa 30c share.
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