Assuming a MAP price near 15 year lows, the project has an after tax NPV of US$159 (A$216mill) and IRR of 40%. Outstanding financials and upside from current mc at the base case MAP price. After tax NPV using current prices is above $A650 and IRR above 60%.MC is under $50mill. Country risk is not insignificant being in Angola but the company has demonstrated very strong government support. Environmental permitting risk and mining permit risk is removed with the project now fully permitted to mine. Timing risk is low with long lead items ordered. Technical risk is very low with a simple plant and blending of the company's phosphate with readily available MAP. Product effectiveness is proven with several years of field trials showing excellent results. Capex is less than 10% of the current NPV, the company is cashed up and has strong support from the IFDC so any future dilution should be low leaving plenty of room for sp upside with the mc upside.
Upside to just 50% of after tax NPV is better than a six fold increase in mc. Once in production, at 100% of after tax NPV, upside is around 12 fold. First production in under a year. Not a lot of time for a 6-10 fold increase in mc. Need to adjust mc upside for 85% ownership but upside risk to above is strong with clear communication of intentions to produce zero carbon ammonium for nitrogen and looking to produce a complete NPK fertiliser. That has to add to the overall value of the company beyond the phosphate blend project NPV. Still looking at strong potential for ten fold increase in sp in under 12 months.
