Food for thought by one economist… (Quote)
In the last year and a half, the fed's balance sheet has skyrocket by $4.1 trillion. This means from the creation of the Federal Reserve back in 1913, all the way through to the start of 2020, the fed's balance sheet grew to $4.1 trillion. Incredibly, it has now skyrocketed to $8.2 trillion. Meaning the fed took 18 months to permanently print what it formerly took 107 years monetize. However, sometime during 2022 the fed's balance sheet will stop growing once Mr. Powell ends QE. Hence, the amount of newly created money that will be flowing into the markets will go from a $4.1 trillion pace to $0. Also, in the last year and a half the government dumped $6 trillion of fiscal stimulus into the economy. In 2022 that number will crash from 25% of GDP, to just 2% of GDP--in other words, just a few hundred billion dollars. Also, investors should not ignore the mutations of COVID-19 that are already causing governments to put on new restrictions and shutting down parts of the globe. If anybody thinks the stock market will be unaffected by all this, they are either lying to you or ignorant about what drives stock prices.
You just cannot have the stock market trading at more than 2x underlying US GDP unless something very unusual is going on. Either the economy is growing at warp speed, or the fed's balance sheet must be booming in similar fashion in order to justify these equity market valuations. The problem is you will have none of it come next year.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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