I agree with many of the comments here. Peakabooau your honesty and analysis is welcomed. I can feel the disappointment in your words from what was expressed in the recent face-to-face presentation. We need significantly better communication from our company. Even the only two analysts on the conference call yesterday seemed a bit confused. Where are the others? Have they given up because it's just too hard to work out, or from boredom? Dan's head seems to be on the block now. The plans he talked about in the conference call really needs to be seen and understood by shareholders to be working.
These results were not what was anticipated and the market has punished accordingly.
I have had a listen to the conference call a couple of times now and not everything is doom and gloom. I started taking some notes:
Guidance was met or beaten.Large investment in exploration. "Bow wave' of materials in resource & represent 63% increase in resource growth across materials.
PFS in Great Cobar underway & Scoping study in Federation the potential to unlock the conversion of Resources to Reserves through FY22.
13% increase in gold and 22% increase to Peaks contribution. Hera down 30% as forecast. Combination of all up 23% y-o-y.
Peter's explanations were sound and once again a very big congratulations to the sterling work done by Adam McKinnon and his team. Stunning results and the work undertaken would be the envy of many miners. It took Chalice's (CHN) Julimar's discovery to knock out Federation as winner in the MNN awards.
'Sweating the assets'. Getting a bit sick of hearing that phrase as it doesn't appear to have happened as we have still quite a bit of capacity in the mills. Again there are reasons as to why and some of those are reasonable and unique to these polymetallic orebodies. But I don't recall at all, Management previously mentioning that the high grade ore from Kairos would be diluted to a blend of 20%. I expected there would be some of course we have 4 or 5 production areas, but I cannot ever recall this figure being mentioned.
The forecast for the FY is OK and is conservative in it's estimates, but I think everyone thought it would be better. It's still going to be a pretty decent profit this time next year. Unless there is something amazing to be pulled out of the hat, what we can expect for the rest of the FY is significant Resources to Reserves conversions, a Maiden Resource Statement and what we hope will be some spectacular figures once the studies are completed for Federation and Great Cobar. Now there is nothing wrong with that but we need to see some sort of timeline and vision. Something that new and existing shareholders can latch onto and understand. Some of the graphs and diagrams presented are not suitable for retail shareholders......or even Analysts!
Based on the figures we should be able to pay another 1c FF dividend. Federation and Great Cobar will be the platform for significant growth in the future. Two amazing resources.
Dargues. It cost us a lot of money. Has it been well spent? Was it good value? Doesn't look like it at this point. But I will give it another 6 months to get a clearer picture.
If like some you are accumulating with a 3+ year time frame then these prices I agree are a bargain. However if you are looking for any significant price movement in the next 12 months you may be disappointed. The share price will continue to be traded by instos based on the average volatility movement which I have discussed at previously. Look at the last 12 months, rinse and repeat.
All the best.
KKR
AMI Price at posting:
37.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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